Last night after a few too many drinks in one of our usual watering-holes, a friend of DealBreaker turned and asked, "What year is it again?"
"Right. You're cut off."
"No. I know its 2006. I'm just trying to figure out what year it is again? Is it 1999, with an internet bubble getting ready to pop again? Is it 1987 and a huge crash is coming? Is it 1997 with another currency crisis looming? Or 1979 with an oil crisis?" he said.
It's always some year again, we guess. Today TickerSense tells us why it's probably not 1987 again.
While there are certainly similarities between now and then (falling bond market and weaker dollar), there is one glaring difference between now and 1987 which makes a similar crash unlikely. The market's run up to now has been modest when compared to the gains leading up to the crash.
And over on The Big Picture, a letter from Ryan Fischer says its not 1994-95 again.
Please, please, I beg of you: quit talking about 1994-995. 2006-07 has no similarities whatsoever -- except in your hope.
Does anyone remember what the bond market did in 94-95? Anyone? The yield on 10 yr treasuries went from basically 5.5% at the beginning of 94 to 8% by year end. That being the number the bond market erroneously thought the FED would go to. By the end of 1995 the yield on the 10 yr was back at 5.5% a dramatic easing of financial conditions. And, on cue, assets went wild, housing and consumption caught the wind in their sails coming off the bond market and off Risk ran.