This morning reports broke that North Korea was claiming to have tested a nuclear weapon, prompting President George Bush to hold a brief press conference denouncing the move. Will the US reaction to this test be the “October Surprise” that many have speculated might (a) boost GOP electoral hopes and/or (b) tank the stock market?
The International Harry Schultz Letter published on October 1st seems to have correctly predicted the move, or at least listed as a likely possibility. According to Peter Brimelow, Shultz writes:
October 2006 is potentially the most dangerous, risky month in modern history. That's mostly because U.S. elections come on Nov 7. Geopolitically, the U.S. is bound like Gulliver ... Its military is stretched to a danger point and its mostly bumbling politicians (red & blue) are unable to escape the clutches of two losing and unwinnable wars ... literal tar pits. That makes the following otherwise-illogical moves as logical possibilities in October, when Washington would be acting or failing to act, for election reasons?
Brimelow goes on to note that:
Schultz' list of possible October moves naturally leads with an attack on Iran by the U.S. and or Israel. Other possibilities include: Russia invading Abkhazia and South Ossetia; a Chinese invasion of Taiwan or the Spratly Islands; a North Korean "mega missile test" or attack on South Korea; a coup d'Ã©tat in Pakistan. Because of U.S. overstretch and distraction, he writes, "October is a free pass month for wild/risky moves."
Well, that just about covers everything, doesn’t it? We guess you don’t have to be that much of a seer to predict that a crisis might happen somewhere between a couple of somebodies. Still, there is some new information here. For instance, apparently places called Abkhazia and South Ossetia exist and yet are not just dance clubs in Coney Island.
Schultz Sees High Possibility Of October Mischief [Dow Jones Newswire]