The Dow of Rupert: Is The Silliness Coming To An End?

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This much is certain. One way or another, the $5 billion offer from News Corp to buy the Dow Jones company will not be outstanding forever. At some point News Corp will offer more money for the company, the controlling shareholders will accept an offer, a new bidder will emerge or News Corp will withdraw its offer. Jeff Greenfield, an analyst at Pali Research, is telling his firm’s clients that the last possibility—a withdrawal of the offer—is most likely.
''We suspect News Corp. will officially announce the termination of its acquisition announcement over the course of the next couple of weeks and leave Dow Jones to fend for itself,'' Greenfield writes in a note to clients (quoted in the Associated Press).
Greenfield does not appear to have any inside information about the plans of News Corp or its chairman, Rupert Murdoch. Instead, the note relies on something more like common sense to make the call that the company will walk away from the bid. The Bancroft family, which controls Dow Jones through its super-voting class B shares, has twice indicated it won’t accept the offer. Greenfield describes waiting for them to change their mind as “silly.”
The note reflects the widespread impression that News Corp and Murdoch are growing frustrated with the refusal of the Bancroft’s to enter into a deal. So far, the Bancroft’s have refused to even meet with Murdoch.
Reuters quotes from the note: "We believe News Corp. is increasingly frustrated with the Bancroft family," said Pali Capital analyst Greenfield . "Given no apparent desire by Dow Jones's controlling shareholders to negotiate, News Corp. is left with little choice other than to walk away from Dow Jones [for now]."
Greenfield’s prediction that News Corp will withdraw its bid seems to rest on his view that the acquisition of Dow Jones is not a “must-have” for the company.
Murdoch may lose interest in Dow Jones bid [Reuters via CNNMoney.com]
Analyst Expects Murdoch to Drop Bid [Associated Press via Forbes.com]

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