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Calling Blackstone’s First Day Performance And The Winner Is…

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After opening with a poplet after its initial public offering on Friday, Blackstone’s stock has been trending downward toward the IPO price. On Friday, we asked DealBreaker readers to guess the price of the shares at close. (A move, we happily confess, was a blatant rip-off of a Market Beat item.)
Reader BB called it with his two PM forecast of a $35.01 close for BX. This was just a nickel short of the actual close of $35.06, making BB the winner according to our Price Is Right rules. We’ll be sending him a copies of Jack and Suzy Welch’s Winning: the Answers and Dana Vachon’s Mergers & Acquisitions. BB requested that we maintain his anonymity.
“I arrived at the $35.01 closing price by a combination of technical analysis and luck,” BB told us. “I noticed that after the initial pop in BX shares the stock sold off rather quickly, dropping from $38 and finally catching a bid around $35. It rallied back to $36, but I suspected another wave of selling before the close and guessed that the stock might hold that $35 level once again. Remembering the old Price is Right strategy, I tacked on a penny to my guess – and bingo: $35.01.”
Click here for a pop-up version of the chart BB used for his winning analysis. Arrow indicates the time the closing price forecast was submitted.