September: Good For LD Fans, Bad For 99% of the People Who Read This Site

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As all of you know—or should know, and if you don’t: educated yourselves—September has a reputation for being the worst month of the year. (Do you like when I write “Dear Reader” statements such as that last one, wherein I pretend that I’m using my 20+ years of experience to teach you people, who work in financial services, something about the markets, when really, I’ve only been at this for not even a decade? Or that I give a fuck?) There’s a slowdown of money going into the markets and, historically, stocks decline an average 1.2% this month, versus an average gain of 0.59% during the other eleven. Additionally, many mutual funds counting October as their fiscal New Year’s Eve will be selling losing positions from mid-September until mid-October.
But how are we going to make this September the best (and by best we mean worst) one yet? Well, some think that if the Beard of Understanding takes an axe to the federal fund rates on September 18, it’ll mean there’s a recession around the corner. So that could be fun, no? We haven’t had one of those in a while. Then you’ve got a hiring freeze. And layoffs, lots and lots of layoffs, especially at Lehman Brothers, but maybe also at JP Morgan and Citi, and most definitely at Bear Stearns (is it insensitive to use this as an opportunity to plug the DealBreaker Career Center?). (If you happen to survive September, those tracking bonuses are predicting a 5% decline for bankers and a 40% decline for traders in the collateralized mortgage securities business. But that’s December’s bad news, not September’s. Focus, Levin. Focus).
Can’t really think of anything else off the top of our head at the moment, but surely you guys can come up with something. We’ll be bringing you a Sugarman update shortly.
For Investors, September Is the Cruelest Month [CNBC]
Markets Brace For Seismic September [NYP]
Wall Street hiring machine goes idle [MarketWatch]

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