Are The Credit Markets Predicting Another August?

Author:
Publish date:

Okay. That's about enough time buried in quarterly financial reports for us. To cheer ourselves up after spending too much time with Bank of America's investment banking division and JP Morgan's commodities trading desk, we decided to turn to the broader markets.
But for some reason we're not exactly cheered up. The yields on short term treasuries have been shrinking all week, while commercial paper rates climb. The spread between three month t-bills and Libor keeps getting wider. The last time we saw this kind of action was in August and September. During that "summer credit crunch."
Even the good news is wrapped in bad news. While overall commercial paper issuances grew, asset backed commercial paper issuance shrank for a 10th straight week. The Entity doesn't seem to be inspiring much confidence.
Implied volatility is down from its highs, but sits right about where it was at the end of July. Oh, and we just ran the charts and noticed that the major stock indexes are right about where they were before the August turmoil hit. Well, actually, the NASDAQ is a bit higher. But we can't help feeling that this is all a bit spooky.
One question. Everyone keeps focusing on Friday as the anniversary of 1987's market crash. But wasn't that on a Monday following a week of losses and volatility? Which is to say, shouldn't we be thinking not so much about Friday as Monday?
Whew. We're in a gloomy mood today. We're blaming it on "market dislocations."

Related