Fannie & Freddie Warrants: Studies In Efficient Markets or Compliant Government?

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As part of the rescue plan announced today, the US government took warrants to obtain 79.9% of the common stock of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac at a nominal price. Fascinatingly, this is very close to the year-to-date decline price of common stock in both companies up until Friday, when news began to leak out that the plan would be announced this weekend.
It's possible that this decline and warrant percentage are purely coincidental. Or it may demonstrate something of the efficiency of the market, in a wisdom-of-crowds guessing the amount of jelly-beans in the jar way, with the market correctly anticipating the dilution effects of the government rescue. Given the faith in markets among some high ranking Treasury officials, it's not outlandish to imagine that they may have wanted a plan that complied with market expectations as reflected in the pricing of Fannie and Freddie equity.
An even more intriguing possibility is that the 79.9% number was demanded by Treasury officials because that seemed to represent the market's expectations. Here we enter snake-eating-its-tail territory, with the government setting its policy based on market anticipation of government policy. This would be market efficiency as a tautology.

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