A New Phase Has Begun


We began the phase with the all too familiar "We are well capitalized. We don't foresee additional equity raises being required in the foreseeable future, except in the event of something unforeseen." This was followed within 30 days with an unforeseen event, another major equity raise and related dilution to existing shareholders.
Next up, the phase best described as "We are announcing write downs that effectively wipe out the last 24 months of earnings. Fortunately, we are also doing an equity raise which gives us 120% of this capital and we don't expect any further write downs." This was followed in the same quarter by even larger write downs and another equity raise along with all the pain to shareholders that entails
We then moved into "Though we are not now in a crisis of any kind, and I want to really emphasize that, not... in... a crisis... we now have enough capital to deal with any crisis we are not in or any unforeseen event that hasn't yet been an eventuality we have had to face." This was followed by an equity raise.
We then moved into "The financial system at large is in the midst of a crisis. Fortunately, since we planned for this unforeseen event, we have enough capital to weather these difficult times." A question on the call would invariably spring out: "Are you facing a liquidity crisis?" Answer: "None of our clients or our partners have lost faith in our financial strength." Q. "So, you aren't in a liquidity crisis?" A. "We have several employee retention plans in the works, including a deal with the Shake Shack for half price coupons for top earners." Of course, at that very moment, the firm was getting the last subscription agreement documents signed.
After that was "We are in the middle of a liquidity crisis. Several partners have pulled their lines of credit. We have taken several steps to avoid any downgrade or counterparty credit issues and we believe our strong capital base will show how silly these fears are." A downgrade and a preferred stock offering with 12% accruing dividends becomes public days later.
Now we have entered another stage of the credit crisis.

"From a very optimistic point of view, the financial liquidity crisis has subsided, for the time being, and the focus has shifted to the real economy," said Kenichi Watanabe, chief executive of Nomura.

We are officially in the "The crisis is over" phase. Expect unexpected equity raises any day now.

Nomura chief says liquidity crisis over
[The Financial Times]


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