Skip to main content

No, Seriously, It's, Like, Totally An Emergency Now

Goldman Sachs wasn't the only group surprised by the sudden bursting of the Oil BubbleTM. OPEC is going batshit, and we don't mean that in a good way.
The problem at this point, as is usually the case with supply side controls, many of the members will be strongly incentivized to cheat on any cuts. With November NYMEX crude futures trading at just over $58$57$56$55 $54, several petrol economies are looking at deficit budgets. This is extremely problematic for countries that have leveraged their in-ground deposits to feed spending binges. We aren't naming any names, but several of the more aggressive spenders over the last five years were already having fiscal issues with oil at $65. Continuing slips would be a problem all by themselves, but production cuts on top of those will be even worse.
It is ironic that just when the cohesiveness of the cartel is most needed it is under the greatest pressure. This is one of the reasons it has been remarkable that OPEC, with so many members, has lasted even this long. Now, panicky behavior on the part of the largest extraction economies is to be expected. Figuring that this is lining up to be an outstanding show, we have several bids in on eBay for old-time theater popcorn poppers.
OPEC Plans to Meet This Month to Discuss Output Cut [Bloomberg]
Related:The OPEC Sandbox



Opening Bell 6.25.18

OPEC raises; Erdogan elected; Sex robots and more!