We are, I suppose, to believe in Taleb's genius:
Universa Investments, a firm run by two of Mr Taleb's protégés who receive advice from their mentor, had as of mid-October posted yearly returns of at least 50 per cent and as much as 110 per cent. During the same period, the S&P 500 fell by 40 per cent and markets worldwide disappointed intensely.
But their returns this year aren't the question. Their long term returns are what should be at issue, that is unless investors claim to be able to time the market with such skill as to enter these funds just before their wild gains and depart them for the boring years that interlude.
Market gospel 'discredited' [The Financial Times]