One Man's Counterparty Credit Risk Hedge Is Another Man's Directional Bet

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Tyler Durden over at Zero Hedge has an interesting take on Goldman's AIG hedging:

Purchasing $10 billion in CDS (roughly in line with what Viniar claims happened) at a hypothetical average price of 25 bps (and realistically much less than that) and rolling that would imply that at today's AIG 5 yr CDS price of 1,942 bps, the company made roughly $4.7 billion in profit from shorting AIG alone! This would more than make up for the $2.5 billion collateral shortfall (out of $4.4 billion total) GS claims AIG had with Goldman Sachs... If AIG had filed for bankruptcy, and assuming Lehman is any indication, the P&L would have likely hit $6+ billion.

Preliminary Goldman Call Observations [Zerohedge]