Green shoots or not, recovery is not quick or easy, at least if the survey by the Wall Street Journal bear any weight. (Or at least, bear more weight than the Administration). To wit:
Economists in the latest Wall Street Journal survey see an end to the recession by autumn, but say it will take years for the economy to fully recover.
"In general, I think it will be a subdued recovery," said Paul Kasriel of The Northern Trust Corp.
On average, the 52 economists who participated in the survey project that the recession will end in August. They expect gross domestic product to contract 1.4% at a seasonally adjusted annualized pace in the current quarter, compared with the 6.1% drop recorded in the first quarter. Slow growth is expected to return by the third quarter, with the economy expanding more than 2% in the first half of 2010.
Guesses abound, and we aren't particularly sure we believe anyone anymore. (Yes, we know, that's very Taleb of us). Still, we are suspicious. Given the potential for downside, and the painful unemployment numbers that abound, it is hard to be bullish. But, then, we are permabears at heart.
Economists See Long Road to Recovery [The Wall Street Journal]