Almost Time To Check The Government's Arithmetic

Author:
Publish date:

Joe Biden's stimulus goals better lead to a lot more people being hired to make the celebratory signs. The government only has a few months left before the ultimate jobs number fudge factor, the birth/death model adjustment meets its maker in the form of the annual revision by the Labor Department. While each month the government gets to use the honor system for estimating how many new businesses are created, existing ones fail, and the resulting net impact on payrolls, once a year the Labor Department utilizes the prior year's tax records to produce a more accurate count. Hard as it may be to believe, the government may have painted a slightly better jobs picture than was warranted. Just how far did they overshoot?

About 824,000 more jobs may be subtracted from the payroll count for the 12 months through last March when the figures are officially revised early next year, a Labor Department report showed today. The revision would be the biggest since the government started adjusting the numbers in 1991.

So you say we need 824,000 more jobs- that is nothing the birth/death model adjustment can't fix next year.
U.S. Job Losses May Be Even Larger as Labor's Model Breaks Down [Bloomberg]

Related