Back in July, BusinessWeek ran an article asking its audience, "Krugman or Paulson: Who You Gonna Bet On?" Krugman's outlook on the economy was way too dark, the article suggested, forecasting a third depression, whereas Paulson's was more evenhanded, noting that "we're in the middle of a sustained recovery in the U.S." and "the risk of a double dip is less than 10 percent." The author stopped short of saying it, but, oh, Krugman knew what he was driving at. That the economist was a bearded fruit, Paulson, a "market wizard." Today, deciding that sufficient time had passed to prove that you shoulda bet on the BF, Krugman sat down to his computer and banged out the closest approximation to an "in yo face!" that the Times will allow.
"Krugman or Paulson: Who You Gonna Bet On?" Sorry, can’t resist. That was the title of this Business Week article a few months ago. The tone made it pretty clear that if you had any sense, you’d ignore the bearded academic and go with the market wizard. So, how’s it going? I’m sure that if Paulson had proved right, there would be a followup article mocking yours truly. Wanna bet that there won’t be a piece saying that maybe professors know something that traders don’t?
*Big Swinging Academic.