Expert: You Can Only Fire As Many Employees As You Have, And If You Do, You Will Have To Hire Others

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Economics teaches us that companies do not have an unlimited number of employees to lay off. Data backs this up.

“There is only so much companies can cut layoffs before they have to start thinking about adding to headcounts,” said Guy Berger, an economist at RBS Securities Inc. in Stamford, Connecticut, who projected claims would drop to 325,000 last week, the lowest forecast in the Bloomberg survey. “The longer this continues, the more likely companies will have to add to headcounts….”

Applications for unemployment insurance payments decreased by 4,000 to 323,000 in the week ended May 4, the fewest since January 2008, Labor Department figures showed today. The four-week average declined to 336,750, the lowest since November 2007, the month before the start of the worst economic slump since the Great Depression.

And with fewer people getting shit-canned, fewer people are taking more than an extra month to pay their mortgage.

The rate of U.S. mortgages that are delinquent or in foreclosure fell to a four-year low as job growth helped some borrowers catch up on payments and rising demand for homes made it easier for others to sell.

Home loans that were at least one month late or in the foreclosure process dropped to 10.3 percent of mortgages in the first quarter, down from 11.25 percent in the fourth quarter and 11.33 percent a year earlier, the Mortgage Bankers Association said in a report today….

“The jobs are the key,” Jay Brinkmann, the Mortgage Bankers Association’s chief economist said in a telephone interview from Washington. “People with steady paychecks are less likely go into default.”

Jobless Claims in U.S. Unexpectedly Fall to Five-Year Low [Bloomberg]
U.S. Mortgages at Least 30 Days Late Fall to 4-Year Low [Bloomberg via BW]

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UBS Chairman: Other Banks Will Have To Fire Thousands Of Employees Too, Y'Know

Difference is, UBS is the only one that's faced facts already, 'cause they're consistently ahead of the curve like that. Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, all those other guys will get a cold hard dose of reality sooner or later, though, and when they do they'll say, "Damn! UBS was all over this!" A day after UBS AG announced it was cutting up to 10,000 jobs by 2015, UBS chairman Axel Weber is warning that many of the Swiss banking giant’s rivals may have to follow suit...“I suspect that many banks have not yet really understood what the consequences of the new capital rules for business will be when they come into full effect in 2019,” Weber was quoted as saying in Wednesday’s edition of the German daily Handelsblatt. “We, on the other hand, see this new world very clearly,” he said. “Besides that, Swiss rules commit us to even higher own capital demands than the 10 percent capital quota that Basel III orders.” UBS Chief: Other Banks May Need To Downsize Too [AP] Earlier: Layoffs Watch ’12: UBS Tells Employees Not To Bother Themselves With Figuring Out How To Get Into Work (Ever Again)