While he’s in a chatty mood vis-à-vis Allergan, the Pershing Square chief might want to tap that flow, since someone who has covered the Botox-maker for a whole year thinks he’s got this thing in the bag. More or less.

"As we get closer to the Dec. 18 meeting, we expect greater involvement of event-driven investors supportive of the deal," Arfaei said in the report. "Therefore, this analyst believes that Valeant and PS have a 50% to 60% chance ... to replace a majority on the board."

Allergan likely to lose bid to stop takeover by Valeant, analyst says [L.A. Times]