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So, that sure-thing Fed lift-off next month? You know, the surest thing since “that ’19 Kids and Counting’ alleged child molester-turned-conservative pro-family activist will be on the Ashley Madison list”? Yea, it’s not looking so sure anymore, and Jeff Gundlach couldn’t be happier.
“The Fed is not committed to a rate hike in September,” said Ian Lyngen, senior government bond strategist at CRT Capital Group. “If the Fed was not ready to raise rates in September in the July meeting, information since that meeting means they probably are not ready to raise now,” referring to the drop in commodities prices and growing concerns over China.
Indeed, odds implied by fed-funds futures prices showed a 24% chance for a rate increase in September, according to analysis by CME. That is down from 45% ahead of the minutes.