So Janet Yellen and her buds of the Fed Open Market Committee are huddling right now, deciding whether to raise rates by a quarter-point now, or to do so later. Much rides on this, notably prognosticators’ pride and what must be countless personal bets between traders, but old friend of DB John Carney notes that one thing that is not riding on it are bank shares, because they are totally screwed no matter what.
It is the Fed’s communications about the path it expects rates to take in the future that are likely to drive bank shares. If the Fed were to couple an announcement of a rate rise on Thursday with a postmeeting statement that promises to hold off on further increases or lowered its forecasts of where rates will be next year, banks shares could suffer….
Even those that haven’t been underperforming the index over the past month, including J.P. Morgan and Capital One, may suffer.