Greek Bailout Working*

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Still here!

The asterisk symbolizing the caveats “in part” and “as long as you Germans get around to giving us some of that debt relief you so grudgingly agreed to consider maybe thinking about one day pretty soon.”

Greek banks will not need any further recapitalisation after the latest round, in which the European Central Bank put their additional capital needs at 14.4 billion euros, the ECB's Monetary Policy Strategy division head Rasmus Rueffer said. "If we don't make the critical decision in let's say February 2016, and we push the critical decision back to next summer or even 2017, then all the results will be delayed," Tsakalotos told the American-Hellenic Chamber of Commerce.

Savers would not return their deposits to Greek banks, banks would not resume lending to businesses and investors would delay decisions to invest if the spectre of a possible Greek exit from the single currency area were not removed.

Greek banks won’t need even more recapitalisation- ECB [Reuters]
Greece seeks debt relief deal in February 2016 [Reuters]

Related

This Is Really Only The "Second" Greek Bailout?

If you're into Greece you've probably already read all about it and if you're not I can't make you. But in brief: Greece is fixed and we will NEVER HEAR ABOUT ANY PROBLEMS EVER AGAIN. In less brief: (1) Some folks stayed up all night and produced a statement. (2) Greece's private creditors will be offered the long-anticipated opportunity to voluntarily exchange their old bonds for new bonds, which will for the most part be the same as the old bonds except for minor differences including but not limited to a greatly extended maturity (to 2042), a 53.5% reduced face amount, and a 3.6% blended interest rate. (3) If they don't voluntarily exchange, which they will because - hilariously - they've already taken accounting writedowns (and also because I guess it's better than a disorderly default), private holders will get CAC'ed, which may or may not be as bad as it sounds, but in any case at least CDS will pay out, unless it doesn't. (4) Also the public sector will do various helpful, confusing things. (5) In exchange for this, Greece will enact horrible austerity, and because no one believes that Greece will actually do that, there will be escrow accounts and what Reuters ominously calls "permanent surveillance by an increased European presence on the ground." (6) Everyone is pretty sure we'll be doing this again in six months and, look, just fair warning, I will not be writing about it then, because feh. We haven't had a serious international bankruptcy, which this pretty much is, since I started paying attention to the financial markets, two months ago, so I mostly think about insolvency from a US bankruptcy law perspective. One thing that happens in bankruptcy is that, like, really really roughly speaking, the creditors stop being creditors and become the owners. This isn't always the case but the basic playbook of US bankruptcy law is: