Goldman Sachs’ Fed Crystal Ball Gets Cloudy

This is new and uncomfortable.
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The courage of Goldman's convictions is fraying in the face of Yellen the Inscrutable.

The economic team that tries to predict the Fed’s future moves is shifting to a model of projecting the probability of future rate increases, rather than picking a “yes” or “no” forecast….

Jan Hatzius, the lender’s chief economist, writes Monday that, “our views about the speed and timing of that increase are more uncertain, more probabilistic, and more sensitive to new information.”

Goldman Economists Take New Tack on Handicapping the Fed [WSJ]

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