Moody’s Investor Service may not be any good at rating securitizations, but it’s been pretty good at guessing who’s gonna win presidential elections. It’s been right nine times in a row, and even got the outcome of every state right the last two times around. (Take that, Nate Silver.) That’s all the more impressive given that, under Moody’s’ model, it doesn’t matter who’s running. All that matter is who’s currently in the White House, how popular he is and how the economy is doing, the latter measured primarily by gas prices. And right now, a Democrat is in the White House, he’s fairly popular and—contrary to what you’ve heard—the economy’s doing pretty well. It really is, in the immortal words that last put a Clinton in residence at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, “the economy, stupid.” And that’s bad news for those hoping that every utterance from their commander-in-chief will be delivered with a sneer starting January 20, 2017.
It shows Clinton winning 332 electoral votes, well north of the 270 needed to claim victory. In fact, every state should go the same way it did last time, because home prices are appreciating, gasoline is cheap, incomes are rising and voters already approve of the job President Obama’s doing, even before he and Clinton get down to re-selling it in earnest this summer.
“There are only two things that could change the model between now and November: the approval rating and gas prices,” Moody’s economist Dan White said.
"Gasoline prices would have to be somewhere in the $3 range for the Republicans to potentially win."