For a while there it looked like Citigroup was ready to give in and start helping make America great again, doling out foreboding research notes in which it warned elitist financier clients to take a look over the edge of their ivory towers and see the Trump train rolling in on from the lands of the proletariat.
Citi wanted everyone to know that this thing wasn't over. Trump might not be polling well on Park Avenue or in Pacific Heights, but he had the votes of a lot of people that also vote in...like, other places. Citi just wanted you hoi polloi to hedge your bets and brace yourselves for Trump's America.
But then we all got to see what The Donald is like whilst chilling on a bus with a lesser Bush, and now, well, Citi is rethinking some shit...
"Based on continued momentum for Clinton in the polls, and Trump's difficulty in overcoming challenges and broadening his appeal behind his stalwart supporters, we increase our probability of a Clinton victory to 70 percent from 60 percent," the team, led by Chief Global Political Analyst Tina Fordham write in a note.
Trump has indeed had trouble "overcoming challenges," like the ones bursting forth from his own mouth and fractured psyche, and that seems to be enough for Michael and the Corbats to do everything short of calling this thing.
"Although Clinton is the clear favorite to win, we continue to be cautious due to concerns about polls capturing marginalized voters and the high potential for 'Black Swan' events in this highly volatile race," they conclude.
No one tries harder to cover its own ass in real-time quite like Citi, so we respect the effort here, but the thinking is faulty on its face. The potential for bizarre happenings is high because this entire election is a "Black Swan" event.