When Larry Kudlow signed on as a visible and vocal economic advisor to the Trump campaign, it was surprising but not shocking. After all, Kudlow has made it crystal clear over the years that he will do anything for a tax cut, so why wouldn't he just grab the ear of a guy he might kind of know and try to get him elected president so he can give EVERYBODY a tax cut?
But it turns out that Larry was maybe playing an even deeper game than we thought. All those appearances on CNBC pretending like Trump had a cogent economic plan, all those times he said that Trump was imperfect but better than Hillary, all those minutes he spent watching John Paulson interview Trump during that "fireside chat," was it all some kind of dark genius double game?
Oh, Larry, you devious scamp. Tell us more...
I’m not going to predict tonight’s outcome, though I think it will be close. But I offer this advice: If Trump wins and stocks fall, buy the Trump dip. And if Hillary wins and stock rise, sell the Hillary rally.
So this was all about making the market swing as crazily as possible on November 9th? How deliciously Shakespearean of you. You're like the Iago of ultra-risky meta-spoofing. Filling Trump's head with a mix of logic and nonsense while whispering into his orange ear in that nasally condescending tone of yours?
You, you're good you.
But can anyone follow Larry's advice at this point? Or is it too ingenious?
What say you, anonymous macro trader?
"Buy the dip on a Trump win is very consensus; idea that if he wins all Central banks will ease and Fed back off rate hikes etc."
So if Larry Kudlowivelli is wrong, how are you gonna play this shit?
"Seems the market has priced in a HRC win over past 2 days, short bonds, short EURUSD and long risk seem to be the way to go if you think Hilldawg’s gonna win. Buying the MXN was also a great way of squeezing out the Trump shorts but that’s all pretty much over now, positioning is a lot more clean. Right now there’s very little liquidity so I’m keeping stops wide and praying."
But our guy isn't just pinning this whole thing on a Peso and a prayer or a Trump dip. He's thinking forward a few days...and then praying a little more.
"Congress is polarized and broken, it’s just gonna get worse. So, I’m going to ride these moves in the short term but somewhere between now and end of month I imagine yields are a buy (probably 2%-ish on the 10 year) and the USD a sale… Good luck to us all!!!"
Nice try, Larry Kudlow, there's a smidgen of hope left in some of us yet!