Why Forecasts for a Trump Victory Market Collapse Were So Wrong (WSJ)
Before the vote, most analysts and economists predicted that a Trump victory would push investors to dump risky investments, in particular equities. They were correct for a matter of hours before markets rallied sharply.
President-elect Donald Trump could sign legislation proposed by Republicans that would put the agency under Congress’s thumb. Lawmakers could also overturn specific CFPB regulations, including one loathed by the industry that made it easier for consumers to sue their banks.
What Trump Means For The U.S. Economy. Two Charts From Barclays (eFinancialCareers)
Barclays’ macro analysts have been making their own attempts at parsing the future. The two charts below summarize their conclusions: GDP will fall and then rise; inflation will rise and rise and rise. Basically, Trump’s presidency looks like increasingly good news for banks’ macro trading desks. Barclays is still expecting one U.S. rate hike in 2016 and two rate hikes in each of 2017 and 2018. Rates traders are back.
Donald Trump’s plans for a U.S. construction boom have set off a chain reaction that’s invigorated commodities prices, hammered bonds, buttressed the dollar and is now ripping into emerging markets.
Trump and Macro (FT Alphaville)
Trump has much less of an electoral mandate and a much narrower legislative majority than Obama did in his first two years. Trump’s majority in the Senate is especially fragile if you account for the Republicans who actively campaigned against him. We aren’t political experts (but who is these days?) so we won’t try to predict how all this will affect what Trump can and can’t do. We are reasonably confident these constraints will matter, however, and that they will interact with his policy promises in ways that will make it very difficult to predict what will actually happen. Factor in additional elections in 2018 and 2020, and only a fool would be confident in saying he knows what economic policy will look like in a Trump administration.
Tuesday’s Republican sweep, and Mr. Trump’s commitment to focus on the issue, has the GOP salivating over a wish list of Dodd-Frank changes that until recently stood little chance of avoiding President Barack Obama’s veto pen. The lineup includes everything from regulatory exemptions for community banks and regional banks to a new regime for insurers and asset managers to curbs on the federal government’s influence over consumer-finance products such as mortgages and payday loans.
Jeff Bezos is frantically aborting that mission to send Donald Trump into space. Amazon’s billionaire boss — who joked last December he’d like to send Trump into orbit on a rocket operated by Blue Origin, his space-exploration startup — on Thursday congratulated Trump on winning the presidential election.
Now you can say that I’ve grown bitter, but of this you may be sure
The rich have got their channels in the bedrooms of the poor
And there’s a mighty judgment coming, but I may be wrong
You see, you hear these funny voices in the tower of song.