Opening Bell: 1.23.17

Strong dollar may prove Donald Trump’s match (FT)

Verbal jawboning is likely to get more aggressive and frequent if the dollar continues to climb, but absent co-ordinated intervention among the biggest countries in the world — not unprecedented but improbable given the new administration’s rhetoric and other countries’ desire for weaker currencies — is unlikely to have a lasting impact.

Trump to Sign Executive Order on Plan to Renegotiate NAFTA With Mexico, Canada (CNBC)

Trump is also expected to sign an executive order announcing his intention to withdraw from the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), a trade agreement among 11 Pacific Rim countries and never ratified by Congress, said the White House official. He will simultaneously move to begin individual trade negotiations with the countries in the TPP.

Measuring Americans’ Expectations Following the 2016 Election (NY Fed)

While consumer confidence as measured by various surveys has increased sharply since the national election, the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations has shown little notable change in expectations. We show that the difference may partly reflect systematic compositional changes whereby respondents who answer a survey after the election differ in important ways from those answering the survey before the election.

At a private lunch in Davos, Jamie Dimon was asked about the elephant in the room (BI)

America is going to be better in 10 years than it is today. And there are solutions. I think negative income tax is a big solution for the low-skilled, to give people a living wage and the dignity of a job. I think that technology is the best thing that ever happened to mankind. It's an absurd notion that somehow, 'My God, what are we going to do when driverless cars come along?' It's going to save lives on the road. And maybe one day we'll all be working four days a week and not five or six days a week. In fact, I think in Europe they're already down to four days a week.

The challenge of predicting where activist investors will pounce (FT)

A company whose total shareholder return over a 12-month period is much weaker than most of its peers is vulnerable to an activist in the following nine months, it found. A group whose return on equity is below average in a sector is also open to a challenge.

J.P. Morgan Joins Push for Nontransparent, Active ETFs (WSJ)

Precidian’s ETFs would disclose stockholdings on a delay rather than daily, as traditional ETFs do. If approved, the funds could open a lucrative new business line for banks and asset managers whose investors are clamoring for ETFs, which trade on public exchanges just like company stocks.

What Do Traders at Myanmar’s Stock Exchange Do All Day? Nothing. (WSJ)

“People are always looking for a story to trade on,” Mr. Zhang said. “But right now it seems to be secondhand cars, not stocks.”

Beware the Hedge-Fund Wipeout in Treasuries as Bearish Bets Soar (Bloomberg)

There’s a big showdown looming in the U.S. Treasury market. The “fast money,” made up of hedge funds and other speculators, upped its bearish bets like never before this month, based on futures data for five-year notes. At the same time, “real-money” accounts, composed of institutional buyers like mutual funds and insurers, did the opposite and built up their bullish positions in much the same way.

Once again in circularity and potential leading indicators (FT)

“The price action in some markets suggests that the exuberance may now be fading, even reversing somewhat. The US dollar and 10yr USD Treasury yields peaked in mid-December, while equity markets have lost their upside momentum.”

Doomsday Prep For The Super-Rich (New Yorker)

In private Facebook groups, wealthy survivalists swap tips on gas masks, bunkers, and locations safe from the effects of climate change. One member, the head of an investment firm, told me, “I keep a helicopter gassed up all the time, and I have an underground bunker with an air-filtration system.” He said that his preparations probably put him at the “extreme” end among his peers. But he added, “A lot of my friends do the guns and the motorcycles and the gold coins. That’s not too rare anymore.”