Opening Bell: 2.10.17

The flash crash trader lost all his flash cash; Bridgewater is like basketball; boyfriend got shot over a cold taco; and more.
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How the Flash Crash Trader’s $50 Million Fortune Vanished (BBG)

A review of Sarao’s investments from 2005 to the present day, based on dozens of interviews and thousands of pages of documents, reveals another twist in an already remarkable story. Navinder Sarao, the trading savant accused of sabotaging the world’s financial markets from his bedroom, may himself have been the naïve victim of what his lawyers portray as a series of cons that stripped him of almost every cent he earned.

J.P. Morgan’s James Dimon: Make It a Double (WSJ)

Saturday marks the first anniversary of the J.P. Morgan boss’s big bet on the bank’s stock. With the market down more than 10% at this point last year and J.P. Morgan shares down 20%, Mr. Dimon bought $26.6 million worth of his company’s shares. Mr. Dimon’s purchase marked the bottom in bank stocks and the market overall, and the start of a strong rally, especially in bank shares. Financials have been the best-performing sector, up more than 40%. J.P. Morgan itself is up 62% since Mr. Dimon added to his already substantial holdings.

Citigroup Says Keep Calm and Carry On Buying Equities (BBG)

Citigroup is using the historical road map to point out that in about three-quarters of the time after such rallies in the past, the index has gained between 10 percent and 15 percent in the following 12 months. Still, even Citigroup sounds a note of caution, warning that following gains of this magnitude, any second leg up does tend to be bumpy, with pullbacks of at least 7 percent in about three-quarters of similar rallies in the past. “Remember that corrections can still happen,” they wrote. “Maybe political concerns could trigger this in 2017.”

China’s hipster indicator (FT)

Chinese pop idol Lu Han this week launched a venture capital firm focusing on lifestyle trends among Chinese millennials. Han is joining a cohort of celebrity investors like Angelababy and Zhao Wei, who co-invested in Jack Ma’s Alibaba Pictures. These kinds of things don’t happen when consumer sentiment is negative and a “get me out” investor psychology has taken hold. They happen at the exact opposite end of the business cycle. So, is China imploding… or overheating?

Bitcoin trading shrivels under Chinese government's glare (Reuters)

Business has virtually dried up on Beijing-based high-speed bitcoin trading platform BotVS, according to chief executive Chen Zhenguo. "With the transaction fees the profits you can get from hedging (Bitcoin) are too low...You might as well put your money in Yu'e Bao," he said, referring to a money market fund run by an Alibaba Group affiliate.

How the Bogle Model Beats the Yale Model (A Wealth of Common Sense)

I have to say that the numbers this year surprised me. I would expect the simple index fund portfolio to beat the average returns (that’s just math), but the fact that the Bogle Model portfolio was in the top quartile and even top decile of endowment returns is insane when you consider the depths these universities will go try to beat the market and how sophisticated they are in the eyes of other professional investors.

Federal Ethics Agency Site Crashes on Day Trump Adviser Plugs Ivanka’s Duds (CNBC)

The website of the Office of Government Ethics, or OGE — a federal agency whose job it is to help presidents and the executive branch avoid conflicts of interest — crashed Thursday because of "an extraordinary volume of contacts from citizens about recent events."

Top Bridgewater exec explains how its intense, unique culture helped the world's largest hedge fund make $50 billion (BI)

In a basketball game, there's radical transparency, right? Because you've got five players on the court in little short uniforms, and you've got a scoreboard, and you've got 20,000 people watching, and then you've got instant replays, and you've got a post-game interview. If you lose the game, A, it's crystal clear that you lost the game, and B, it's crystal clear why, and we can pin it to the players on the court and the coach who put him there and so forth.

Woman allegedly shoots boyfriend over cold taco (NYP)

Investigators say the woman and a male companion were at a taco truck in north Houston early Monday morning when the incident occurred. According to police, the woman became infuriated after she reportedly asked the taco truck worker to reheat her taco and was told no. Her boyfriend then tried to calm her down but the hungry woman then pulled out a gun and wound up shooting her partner.

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Eurogroup approves Spanish banking sector bailout (Reuters) Euro zone finance ministers approved an agreement on Friday to lend up to 100 billion euros ($123 billion) to Spain so it can recapitalize its banks, but the exact size of the loan will probably only be determined in September. Yahoo To Pay Mayer $100 Million Over 5 Years (WSJ) Ms. Mayer is expected to receive around $5.4 million from Yahoo for the remainder of this year and around $20 million a year after that, though some of that amount is tied to performance targets set by the board...The Yahoo pay package includes restricted stock units valued at $14 million in order to "partially compensate" Ms. Mayer for forfeiting her compensation from Google. It also includes a one-time retention award that is valued at $15 million and will vest over five years. Morgan Stanley Joins Citigroup In Job-Cut Push Amid Slump (Bloomberg) Headcount at Morgan Stanley will decline by about 700 in the second half, bringing total 2012 staff reductions to 4,000, Chief Financial Officer Ruth Porat, 54, said yesterday in an interview. Deutsche Bank, Europe’s biggest lender by assets, is considering about 1,000 job cuts at its investment bank, while Citigroup plans to chop about 350, people with knowledge of the decisions said this week. London Fund-Raisers Put Romney in a Scandal’s Glare (NYT) The former chief executive and a top lobbyist for Barclays, the bank at the center of the scandal, helped organize a Romney fund-raiser. The former chief executive, Robert E. Diamond Jr., has since withdrawn his name as the event’s co-host. The bank’s lobbyist, Patrick J. Durkin, remains a co-chairman: he has bundled $1.1 million for Mr. Romney from friends and business associates, more than any other lobbyist, according to federal records. Nasdaq to Release Compensation Plan for Investors Hurt by Facebook IPO Mess (FBN) Nasdaq is looking to release next week the compensation plan for investors who lost out on the bungled IPO of Facebook...Sources say the deal being discussed will be all in cash, and likely above the $40 million originally proposed...Nadsaq had proposed a $40 million deal in which $27 million of it involved trading credits--a move that outraged investors and market makers who may have lost a combined $200 million or more on the botched IPO. Because of that one source says the new Nasdaq proposal could be as high a $100 million and all of it in cash. Insider Traders Face Longer Sentences As Judges Get Tough (Bloomberg) Since Jan. 1, 2011, the judges have sent the average violator to prison for more than 22 months, according to an analysis of sentencing data by Bloomberg News. That was a 20 percent increase from the average term of 18.4 months during the previous eight years. Boxer’s Bloody Nose Leads to Bank Robbery Charges (AP) Martin Tucker won his latest boxing match, but a bloody nose in the ring could send him to prison for bank robbery. The FBI said it obtained a swab used to stop the bleeding and found that DNA matched Tucker's DNA on other evidence from a 2009 robbery at Monroe County Community Credit Union in Temperance, near the Michigan-Ohio border. In a court filing, agent Robert Schmitz said he was aware of Tucker's bout in April in Toledo, Ohio, and obtained the "discarded" Q-tips swab. Tucker's DNA matched DNA from a mask believed to have been used in the robbery and from the steering wheel of the getaway car, the FBI said...Detroit FBI spokesman Simon Shaykhet declined to discuss how Schmitz got the bloody swab. Defense attorney Haytham Faraj said there seems nothing illegal about acquiring it. "We leave our fingerprints, bits of hair and skin all over the place. If you're a boxer, sometimes you leave your blood around," Faraj said in an interview Thursday. Bank of England Says New York Fed Gave No Warning on Rate-Rigging (Dealbook) The call for a review into Libor in 2008 came after Mr. King and Mr. Geithner had talked about potential problems with the rate during a meeting in Basel, Switzerland, in early May 2008. This discussion was followed by a flurry of e-mails a month later in which Mr. Geithner, who is now the Treasury secretary, recommended changes to the rate, which is used as a benchmark for more than $360 trillion financial products worldwide. The suggestions included ‘‘strengthen governance and establish a credible reporting procedure’’ and ‘‘eliminate incentive to misreport,’’ according to documents released by the New York Fed. Mr. King told Mr. Geithner that he supported the suggestions. Yet the New York Fed did not make any allegations of wrongful behavior connected to Libor, according to documents released on Friday. Mr. King told a British parliamentary committee on Tuesday that Mr. Geithner’s suggestions did not represent a warning about the potential manipulation of Libor. Geithner-Led Fed Didn’t Do Enough in Libor Scandal: Sheila Bair (CNBC) "Looking at those emails, it looks like they had pretty explicit notification of some very bad behavior, and I don't understand why they didn't investigate," Bair said today. Banks in Libor probe consider group settlement (Reuters) A group of banks being investigated in an interest-rate rigging scandal are looking to pursue a group settlement with regulators rather than face a Barclays-style backlash by going it alone, people familiar with the banks' thinking said...Barclays Plc was the first to settle with U.S. and British regulators, paying a $453 million penalty and admitting to its role in a deal announced June 27. Its chief executive, Bob Diamond, abruptly quit the next week, bowing to public pressure and erosion of the bank's reputation. The sources told Reuters that none of the banks involved now want to be second in line for fear that they will get similarly hostile treatment from politicians and the public. Rex Ryan's Biggest Loss (NYP) “My surgeon told me one time, ‘How many tacos do you eat?’ because I told him how much I love Mexican food,” Ryan recalled. “I said, ‘I probably can eat about 12 tacos.’ He’s like, ‘OK.’ Never flinched. He said by the time this is really working, you’ll eat about a half or three-quarters of a taco and that’s it. I was like, ‘Why would I want to do that?’ And he said, no, you’ll be satisfied. That’s exactly where I’m at now...I have no clothes that fit. Socks are the only things that fit. Even a hat, underwear, I’ve got to change everything.”

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Opening Bell 11.9.16

Trump shock rattles world markets; guns and pharmas surge on election news; Chinese stock that sounds like “Trump Wins Big” reacts accordingly; and more.

Opening Bell: 05.11.12

JPMorgan's $2 Billion Blunder (WSJ) The CEO emphasized that the bank remains profitable despite the trading loss. "While we don't give overall earnings guidance and we are not confirming current analyst estimates, if you did adjust current analyst estimates for the loss, we still earned approximately $4 billion after-tax this quarter give or take," he said on the call. The bank earned $5.38 billion in the first quarter. Drew Built 30-Year JPMorgan Career Embracing Risk (Bloomberg) JPMorgan Chief Investment Officer Ina R. Drew, head of the unit responsible for a $2 billion trading loss, built a 30-year career at the largest U.S. bank by embracing risk and avoiding the spotlight. “With everything she does, she thinks in terms of trading,” said Stephen Murray, head of CCMP Capital Advisors LLC, created from a JPMorgan private-equity unit in 2006. “There are risk-lovers, there are risk-haters, and the best traders will take the risk as long as they get paid for it.” Drew’s operation, which helps manage the bank’s risk, has been transformed under Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon to make bigger speculative bets with the firm’s own money, according to five former employees, Bloomberg News reported last month. Some bets were so big JPMorgan probably couldn’t unwind them without roiling markets, the former executives said. JPMorgan Holding Talks With UK Regulator (WSJ) JPMorgan has been holding discussions with U.K. regulators about the roughly $2 billion of trading losses incurred by the giant bank's investment office, according to people familiar with the matter. The talks with the Financial Services Authority don't represent a formal inquiry by the regulator, one person said, and it isn't clear whether it will result in any action by the regulatory agency. The FSA has been requesting information from J.P. Morgan about how the trading losses occurred and what steps the bank is taking to avoid such situations in the future, the people said. Volcker Rule Proponents Say JPMorgan Loss Bolsters Case (Bloomberg) Senator Carl Levin, the co-author of the so-called Volcker rule and chairman of the Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, said the New York-based bank’s disclosure yesterday served as a “stark reminder” to regulators drafting the proprietary-trading ban required by the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act. “The enormous loss JPMorgan announced today is just the latest evidence that what banks call ‘hedges’ are often risky bets that so-called ‘too-big-to-fail’ banks have no business making,” Levin, a Michigan Democrat, said in a statement. Wall Street's Go-To Guy Trips Up (WSJ) "I am not sure how many times I can say this: It was bad strategy, executed poorly," Mr. Dimon said of the losses the company suffered in the past six weeks. The acknowledgment is a rare blow for Mr. Dimon, 56 years old, who has been on the top of the banking heap since joining J.P. Morgan Chase in 2004. He regularly extols J.P. Morgan's "fortress balance sheet" and has repeatedly lashed out against lawmakers and regulators who have slapped more rules on the banking industry. Italian man becomes mayor by accident (BBC) Though he had not given much thought to a political platform before the vote, now he is in office he has said that he will focus on promoting tourism to the area. EU Signs Of Recovery, Risks Remain (WSJ) "A recovery is in sight, but the economic situation remains fragile, with still large disparities across member States," Olli Rehn, Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs said in a statement. "Without further determined action, however, low growth in the European Union could remain." Chesapeake Deals Carry $1.4 Billion In Undisclosed Liability (WSJ) Most of these costs will hit this year and next, at a time when the company needs to raise substantial cash to cover operating expenses and its move into the more lucrative oil business. Faber Sees '87-Type Crash If U.S. Stocks Rise Without QE3 (Bloomberg) “I think the market will have difficulties to move up strongly unless we have a massive QE3,” Faber, who manages $300 million at Marc Faber Ltd., told Betty Liu on Bloomberg Television’s “In the Loop” from Zurich today, referring to a third round of large-scale asset purchases by the Fed. “If it moves and makes a high above 1,422, the second half of the year could witness a crash, like in 1987.” Third masseur accuses John Travolta of inappropriate behavior (NYP) Fabian Zanzi, a Chilean-born cruise worker who worked in VIP services, said Travolta offered him $12,000 for the tryst. Zanzi says he refused. Travolta was on the five-day cruise in 2009 without wife Kelly Preston and hit on Zanzi with a cheesy pickup line, the cruise worker said. “He said that I had something on my neck. I thought it was lint,” Zanzi told the Chilean news show “Primer Plano.” “When he got close to me, he took off his white robe and he was naked.”