Opening Bell: 10.30.17

It's (probably) gonna be Powell; this week is going to be nuts; whatever happens, buy the dip; how to survive getting locked in a beer cooler; and much more.
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Trump Likely to Name Jerome Powell Next Fed Chairman (WSJ)
President Donald Trump is likely to announce Federal Reserve governor Jerome Powell as his nominee to be the next chairman of the U.S. central bank next week, according to a person familiar with the matter. The president hasn’t made a formal decision and could still change his mind, several people familiar with the matter said.

Jay Powell

Bond Traders Confront Fears in Week That May Change Everything (BBG)
The next five trading days will bring a torrent of market-moving information: President Donald Trump is poised to finally announce his nominee to lead the Federal Reserve; U.S. central bankers have an interest-rate decision to make; the first possible charges from special counsel Robert Mueller’s probe into Russian meddling in the 2016 presidential election; a House committee is set to release a tax bill; and the Treasury will unveil plans to issue more debt to make up for lost funding from the Fed. Oh, and investors will also get the latest reading on the nation’s job market and the central bank’s preferred inflation gauge.

Why Are Markets Rising Everywhere? Investors Can’t Stop Buying Every Dip (WSJ)
In the stock market, investors are buying the dip more quickly than they used to. The S&P 500 recouped the bulk of its 5.3% two-day post-Brexit decline in only three trading days. It took just three days for the S&P 500 to recover from a 1.8% drop in May—its largest one-day decline of the year—following reports that President Trump asked then-FBI Director James Comey to drop an investigation into former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn. That is a faster recovery than when the S&P 500 fell 11% over a six-day stretch in August 2015 and then took until November of that year to get back to its pre-selloff level.

How Floyd Mayweather Helped Two Young Guys From Miami Get Rich (NYT)
The boxer’s endorsement of Centra, along with a similar endorsement from the popular rapper DJ Khaled, lent a patina of credibility to a project that has ended up with more than a few problems, including a chief executive who does not appear to have been a real person and a shaky, fast-shifting business plan. SEE ALSO: This Company Added the Word ‘Blockchain’ to Its Name and Saw Its Shares Surge 394%

Bitcoin Backlash: Back to the Drawing Board? (Aswath Damodaran)
As you listen to arguments for or against crypto currencies, my only advice is that you go back to basics about the needs that they are filling and that you ask questions about their long term staying power. I think it is also time for us to separate arguments about block chains/smart contracts from arguments about crypto currencies, since you can have one without the other, and to differentiate between crypto currencies, rather than defend them or abandon them all, as a bundle. To me, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple and ICOs are different enough from each other, not only in structure but also in terms of end game, that they need to be assessed independently.

There’s precedent for Amazon competing with so many companies. It doesn’t end well. (Qz)
For business historians, Amazon is starting to look like the sprawling conglomerates of the past century. History has some bad news, says MIT’s Cusumano. “Eventually, Bezos is going to be, if he’s not already, a sample of the US or world economy,” he says. When that happens, Amazon’s equity growth rate may mirror that of the broader economy itself. Since the company went public in 1997, the S&P 500 has grown by a respectable 197%. Amazon stock has risen 700-fold over the same period. Such a drastic slowdown would dash Amazon’s global promise.

The Line Between Aggressive And Crazy (RHS Financial)
From this we start to see the problem with levered ETFs as they are currently constructed: they generally use too much leverage applied to too volatile of assets. Even with the plain vanilla S&P 500 3x leverage is too much. And after accounting for the hefty transactions costs and management fees these ETFs charge, even 2x might be suboptimal (especially if you believe returns will be lower in the future than they have in recent decades). And the S&P 500 is one of the most conservative targets for these products.

Man locked in Kwik Trip beer cooler stays and drinks (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)
The man told police he went to Kwik Trip to buy beer and got locked inside the beer cooler when it was locked at about 11:50 p.m. Tuesday, according to the report. The man said he decided he might as well just stay inside the cooler and drink the beer, the report said. The cooler has a glass door and, if the man had knocked, employees would have heard him and let him out.

Related

Jay Powell

Opening Bell: 11.2.17

Janet who?; SEC tells celebs not to hawk cryptocurrencies; Guggenheim might have done a little self-dealing; CDOs are back again, again, baby; Osama bin Laden was a 9/11 truther?; and much more.

Snap founders Evan Spiegel and Bobby Murphy

Opening Bell: 5.12.17

Millennial investors are ditching Snap; J. Peterman from Seinfeld is hawking a questionable IPO; the lengths we go for beer; and more.

Opening Bell: 05.30.12

Anger Over Christine Lagarde's Tax-Free Salary (Independent) Lagarde was accused of hypocrisy yesterday after it emerged that she pays no income tax – just days after blaming the Greeks for causing their financial peril by dodging their own bills. The managing director of the International Monetary Fund is paid a salary of $467,940 (£298,675), automatically increased every year according to inflation. On top of that she receives an allowance of $83,760 – payable without "justification" – and additional expenses for entertainment, making her total package worth more than the amount received by US President Barack Obama according to reports last night. Unlike Mr Obama, however, she does not have to pay any tax on this substantial income because of her diplomatic status. EU Proposes 'Banking Union' (WSJ) The 17 countries that use the euro should consider setting up a "banking union" that allows them to share the burden of bank failures, the European Union's executive arm said Wednesday in a report on the currency union's crisis-fighting efforts. To further stop expensive bank bailouts from pulling down governments' own finances, allowing the euro zone's new rescue fund to directly boost the capital of banks "might be envisaged," the European Commission said. Greeks Flock To Germany Even As They Criticize It (CNBC) Germany, Europe's economic powerhouse and a country which has been criticized by many Greeks over its harsh demands for austerity cuts in return for bailout cash, has experienced an influx of young skilled immigrants. Der Spiegel magazine noted that while Greek newspapers "printed cartoons depicting the Germans as Nazis, concentration camp guards and euro zone imperialists who allow their debtors to bleed to death," the Greeks have kept arriving — bringing an "anything is better than Athens" attitude with them. Pissarides Says Euro Exit Would Aid Rich Greeks At Cost To Poor (Bloomberg) Nobel economics laureate Christopher Pissarides said wealthy Greeks would benefit at the expense of poorer citizens were the country to exit the euro. “A lot of Greeks” have withdrawn money and deposited it with banks elswhere in the 17-nation currency zone, Pissarides said in an interview in London today. If the country returned to the drachma, the new currency would be so devalued they could buy it cheaply on international markets with the cash they’d exported, enabling them to buy more assets in Greece. While poorer Greeks are equally able to appreciate the difficulties facing their country, they’re not as able to shield their funds from an exit from the common currency, Pissarides said. They need to preserve quick access to their savings, which isn’t as easy to do if it’s held at a foreign bank, and such lenders may not always accept small deposits. Zuckerberg Drops Off Billionaires Index As Facebook Falls (Bloomberg) The 28-year-old’s fortune fell to $14.7 billion yesterday from $16.2 billion on May 25, as shares of the world’s largest social-networking company dropped 9.6 percent to $28.84. Woman's Boyfriend Took Car Without Permission Before She Slammed It Into House (NYP, earlier) Dan Sajewski, 23, arrived at his family’s Huntington estate last weekend with Anderson, 21, his on-again, off-again waitress girlfriend. While his parents vacationed on Long Island’s North Fork, the duo helped themselves to his mother’s 2003 Mercedes-Benz CLK 320, a birthday gift from Sajewski’s anesthesiologist father, a source said. They took a joyride to the Hamptons, where they had a little too much fun. A field Breathalyzer test revealed that Anderson drove home with a .30 Blood-Alcohol Content — nearly four times the legal limit and the equivalent of about 15 drinks, prosecutors said at her arraignment yesterday. They drove back to Huntington and she was speeding along Southdown Road when she failed to turn at a T-instersection — ramming through the front of Indiere’s house, obliterating her kitchen, and exiting through the back wall, prosecutors said. “We can’t believe he just let this girl drive a car he wasn’t even supposed to have in the first place,” a Sajewski family member said. “He’s done this before; he took his sister’s Jeep and just took off. “He was trying to get the car home before the family got home from their own Memorial Day weekend. He’s not exactly the model son.’’ The relative added that Sajewski didn’t call his father about the accident until two hours later. In the police report, Anderson told cops “her power steering got stuck, causing her to crash,” and that she only drank “three beers.” Housing Market Crawls Back (WSJ) Housing prices across the U.S. fell in March, but not as much as in earlier months, according to a report Tuesday that offered fresh evidence of a real-estate market on the mend. Compared with February, prices fell just 0.03% in March, and after adjusting for seasonal factors, they rose 0.09%, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home-price index. "This is the first flat report we've had in quite some time," said David M. Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices. Still, "while there has been improvement in some regions, housing prices have not turned" everywhere, he said. Bankers Hired By Blackberry Maker (NYP) Research In Motion said yesterday it hired investment banks JPMorgan and RBC to review its “options,” which most investors took to mean a potential sale, and warned of another quarterly loss. Gold Investors Rush For The Exits (WSJ) Investors in SPDR Gold Shares and iShares Gold Trust, two high-profile exchange-traded funds that hold physical bullion, also have pulled back recently. Through Friday, the two funds had reduced the number of tons of gold they're holding this month. As of May 15, hedge funds, pension funds and other money managers also had slashed their bets that gold prices will rise in the futures market, to the lowest level since January 20, 2009, according to weekly data released by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The bullish bets rose slightly last week, but remain near the low for the year. Police Find Another Human Body Part In Package In Ottawa (OC) Police found a human hand at the Ottawa Postal Terminal Tuesday night, hours after a bloody foot was delivered to the Conservative party's Ottawa headquarters just blocks from Parliament Hill. Ottawa police were still trying to understand what they were dealing with even as detectives in Montreal combed through a crime scene where a torso was found in a suitcase in that city's Snowdon district. Police discovered the second package, sent from the same place as the package sent to Tory headquarters, Tuesday evening. Officers carried it from the huge Riverside Drive terminal in a brown paper bag, which they X-rayed before they opened it to find the hand. The gruesome events began shortly before noon when access to the Conservative party's headquarters was restricted after the fire department's Hazmat team was called in to investigate a suspicious package. A party staffer had started to open a blood-stained box sent to the office at 130 Albert St. before police were called to investigate. At first, it was thought there was a human heart inside, but after the box was X-rayed, police confirmed that it contained a foot.

Opening Bell: 3.28.16

Dan Loeb warns Seven‐Eleven Japan; American Psycho is back; Cupcake the cat survives 260-mile, 8-day journey through the mail; and more.

VenezuelaPancake

Opening Bell: 1.3.18

Venezuela defaults again; Mifid whiffs; Byron Wien speaketh; Guy Gentile gets that subpoena he always wanted; Silicon Valley's crazy sex parties; and much more

Opening Bell: 06.18.12

Banks Worry As Breakup Talk Revived After JPMorgan Loss (Bloomberg) “There seems to be growing interest in some type of breakup proposal,” said Sheila Bair, a former chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. The concept is expected to arise today as JPMorgan Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon testifies before the House Financial Services Committee on the trading debacle. Last week he told the Senate that the losses, which carved about $23 billion from the bank’s market value, were due to a poor investing strategy coupled with management failures. Senator Sherrod Brown seized on that admission. “It appears executives and regulators simply can’t understand what is happening in all these offices at once,” the Ohio Democrat said during the June 13 hearing. “It demonstrates to me that too-big-to-fail banks are, frankly, too-big-to-manage and too-big-to-regulate.” Greece Set For Bailout Reward As EU Sees Tweaked Aid Terms (Bloomberg) Greek voters are likely to get a reward for backing pro-euro parties, with European creditors set to ease bailout terms on the debt-swamped country mired in the fifth year of recession. A first step will be when Greece’s still to-be-formed government requests modifications to the 240 billion-euro ($303 billion) rescue programs, leading to a revision of Greece’s economic-performance targets sometime before September, a European official told reporters in Brussels today. Greek Coalition Needs 'Breathing Room' From Creditors: MP (CNBC) Kyriakos Mitsotakis, an MP for New Democracy, which won most votes in Sunday’s election and was Tuesday locked in negotiations with historic rivals Pasok and the Democratic Left to form a coalition, told CNBC: “Giving a very sick patient nothing but the same medicine when this has not had the required result would be madness.” Austerity Doesn't Pay As Debt Markets Ignore Rating Cuts (Bloomberg) "I don’t think we should be slaves to the ratings agencies,” Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of England, told lawmakers on Feb. 29. “What we’ve seen is, the action they took recently did actually have no impact on the yield that people in the market were willing to lend to the U.K. government at.” Buying Opportunity All Over Europe, Even Greece, Says Donald Trump (CNBC) FYI: "You're getting it for nothing, you're getting the land for nothing, you're getting everything for nothing," he said. "You have to sit with it for a while, but there are a lot of great opportunities in Europe. There's no question about it. I'm actually looking at something — it's so ridiculous, it's laughable — and yet I'm thinking about doing something over there with a group that is very smart, and frankly there is an opportunity." Einhorn's Overlooked Bear Call on US Steel Pans Out (Reuters) The Greenlight Capital manager unveiled his negative critique of U.S. Steel at the Ira Sohn charitable conference on May 16, where more attention was focused on Einhorn's bearish views on industrial goods company Martin Marietta Materials and online retailer Amazon.com . Yet it's Einhorn's U.S. Steel call that has outperformed, after the closely watched hedge fund manager zeroed in on the company's poor earnings, high pension costs and the impact of China's slowing demand for iron ore. As of Monday's close, the steelmaker's stock price was down 23.1 percent since the popular conference, where top hedge fund managers reveal their best investing ideas. Meanwhile, shares of Martin Marietta have lost about 8.5 percent over the same time period and Amazon's stock is down 0.8 percent. Mark Cuban sells Facebook stake, says 'it was gambling money' (DJ) The billionaire investor and Dallas Mavericks owner sold his stake in the social network, less than a month after initially disclosing he had built a position in the company following its bungled initial public offering. "I took my hit, my thesis was wrong," Cuban said in a CNBC interview. "I thought we'd get a quick bounce just with some excitement about the stock. I was wrong, and when you're wrong you don't wait, you just get out. I took a beating and left."...Cuban described the move as "a trade, not an investment" and compared it to trading baseball cards. "It was gambling money, to be honest with you," he said on Monday. "Any time you try to time the market, you get what you deserve. Sometimes you're right. Sometimes you're wrong. This time I was wrong." Goldman: Fed Will Ease Monetary Policy This Week (CNBC) The Federal Open Market Committee will likely say it would buy assets such as mortgage-backed securities and U.S. Treasurys when it meets for a two-day meeting starting Tuesday, Jan Hatzius, the investment bank’s Chief U.S. Economist said in a report on Monday. “We would be quite surprised if we saw no easing this week,” Hatzius wrote in the report. The End Of The Line For Famed Exchange (WSJ) The owner of the Bendigo Stock Exchange, which traces its roots to a time when thousands of prospectors descended on Victoria state after gold was discovered by two women washing clothes in a creek, plans to close the institution at the end of June. Mike Tyson Set For Broadway Debut (NYDN) The last time Mike Tyson was on stage at a Broadway theater, it was four years ago and he nearly wrecked what was left of his boxing career by biting Lennox Lewis on the leg during a press conference at the Hudson Theater. Now Tyson is returning to a Broadway theater to breathe life into his new career - theatrical performer. Tyson was on stage at the Longacre Theater in midtown on Monday afternoon to announce his one-man show, which will begin a limited engagement on July 31. The show, entitled "Mike Tyson-Undisputed Truth'' will be directed by Spike Lee, who also will be making his Broadway debut. "Mike has lifted himself off the canvas,” Lee said. "It's a great story and Mike tells it masterfully.”

Opening Bell: 02.28.13

EU Bonus Rules Meet Anger (WSJ) The new rules would prevent banks from promising bonuses that exceed an employee's salary—though, with shareholder approval, bonus payments could rise to double the salary. The rules, which are supposed to kick in at the beginning of next year and appear to be the world's toughest, still need to be approved by EU member states and the full European Parliament. European banking executives and trade groups say the rules—which are likely to apply to all European bank's employees around the world—will put the industry at a severe disadvantage relative to U.S. and Asian banks, and that it will provoke unintended consequences. Banks early Thursday weren't yet publicly commenting as they digested the news. But executives privately didn't hold back. "It's a disaster," said a senior investment-banking executive at a top European bank. "It's a crazy policy" that could jeopardize European banks' abilities to hire employees in the U.S. or Asia. Jockeying Stalls Deal On Spending Cuts (WSJ) With mandatory across-the-board spending cuts set to begin Friday, the White House and congressional Republicans are poised to let the deadline pass, each calculating that their hand in negotiations only grows stronger if they scorn a quick compromise. The first face-to-face meeting on the issue between President Barack Obama and congressional leaders won't happen until Friday—the deadline for Mr. Obama to set in motion $85 billion in broad spending cuts. None of the participants expect the morning meeting at the White House to produce a breakthrough. In the run-up, with no serious talks under way, each side is maneuvering to ensure the other catches the blame if the cuts kick in. Cuts Unlike To Deliver Promised US Budget Savings (Reuters) The $85 billion cut to budget authority amounts to about 2.4 percent of the $3.6 trillion the U.S. government is expected to spend in the fiscal year that ends on Sept. 30. The actual amount of savings is much less - $43 billion in the current fiscal year, according to the Congressional Budget Office. That's because federal agencies don't spend all of the money they are allocated in any given fiscal year. A $1 billion aircraft carrier, for example, may take years to build. Even at that lower level, the effects are likely to ripple across the world's largest economy in a way that will work against deficit-reduction efforts. Scrutiny Of Heinz Trades Grows (WSJ) The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, a Wall Street self-regulator, and the Federal Bureau of Investigation are reviewing numerous trades in Heinz stock shortly before the buyout announcement sent the share price soaring Feb. 14, the people said. The inquiries add to an investigation the Securities and Exchange Commission disclosed Feb. 15 into what it called a "highly suspicious" $90,000 purchase of stock options the day before the deal, a position with a potential profit of $1.7 million. The FBI also has said it launched a criminal investigation into options activity ahead of the deal. Flowers Foods Set To Buy Wonderbread From Hostess (NYP) After no other bidders emerged to challenge it, Flowers Foods is set to snare Wonder and a slew of other bread brands being sold by bankrupt Hostess Brands for $360 million. How The Pope's Retirement Package Compares To Yours (CNBC) Let's start with the basics: The pope emeritus will receive a monthly pension of 2,500 euros, according to Italian newspaper La Stampa. That translates to almost $3,300, or close to the monthly maximum of $3,350 that Social Security will pay to an American who retires this year. Few people will actually qualify for that amount. For starters, you would have to wait until 70 to retire. You would also have to spend most of your working life earning Social Security's taxable maximum pay, which is set at $113,700 this year. "That's quite rare," said Richard Johnson, director of the program on retirement policy at the Urban Institute. He pointed out that the average Social Security check is about $1,200 a month — not enough to pay for the typical American retiree's expenses. "For most people, if you look at the median, Social Security counts for about 40 percent of their income. So it's important, but people rely a lot on other savings, like pensions or 401(k) savings," Johnson said. A big nest egg is not something the pope emeritus has to worry about. The Roman Catholic Church will cover his living expenses, provide him with a spacious home inside the Vatican and pay for everything from cooked meals to housekeepers, according to The Telegraph. Such services are not available to the typical American senior, unless he or she pays for an assisted living facility or resides in a nursing home, Johnson said...Health care costs are one of the big risks that older Americans face, and while Medicare pays for the bulk of their expenses, many things are left uncovered, Johnson said. Meanwhile, the pope emeritus will continue to be a member of the Vatican's generous private health care policy, the BBC reported. Blackstone Profits From Regulation With Citigroup Deal (Bloomberg) Blackstone has devised a way to profit from regulation: It’s helping banks meet tougher capital rules without the pain of selling assets or raising equity. The firm last year insured Citigroup against any initial losses on a $1.2 billion pool of shipping loans, said two people with knowledge of the transaction, who asked not to be identified because the matter is private. The regulatory capital trade, Blackstone’s first, will let Citigroup cut how much it setsaside to cover defaults by as much as 96 percent, while keeping the loans on its balance sheet, the people said. RBS Moves To Appease UK (WSJ) The 81%-state-owned bank unveiled a series of moves to ease government and regulatory pressure on the bank to become more U.K. focused and better capitalized. Chief Executive Stephen Hester confirmed that it would list around 25% of the U.S.-based RBS Citizens bank in the next two years "to highlight the valuable nature of the business." RBS also said it would further pare back its investment bank, shedding jobs and cutting risk-weighted assets to £80 billion ($121.3 billion), from £101.3 billion at the end of 2012. Unemployment aid claims fall by 22,000 last week (AP) The number of Americans seeking unemployment aid fell 22,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 344,000, evidence that the job market may be picking up. The four-week average of applications dropped 6,750 to 355,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. That was the first drop in three weeks. Too Big To Fail Hurting Too Small To Compete Banks (Bloomberg) Investors such as Joshua Siegel, founder and managing principal at New York-based StoneCastle Partners LLC, see bigger changes at the other end of the spectrum. Small banks will seek mergers because their management teams are aging and new regulations are too costly to bear, he says. “If you need one major overriding theme of the industry in the next three, five, seven, 10 years: massive consolidation, thousands of banks,” says Siegel, whose firm managed $5.1 billion as of the end of last year and invests in small banks. In the U.S., “I do see probably anywhere from 2,000 to 4,000 banks being swallowed up, and what you’ll see then is a more- concentrated system.” Dennis Rodman Tells Kim Jong Un: You Have A Friend For Life (NYP) Rodman and Kim sat side by side at an exhibition game in Pyongyang on Thursday, chatting as they watched players from North Korea and the US play in mixed teams, Alex Detrick, a spokesman for the New York-based VICE media company, told The Associated Press. Rodman later addressed Kim before a crowd of thousands, telling him, "You have a friend for life," Detrick said. The encounter makes Rodman the most high-profile American to meet with the young North Korean leader, said to be a diehard basketball fan.