By almost every metric, Tesla massively missed its super-aggressive production target of its Model 3 for the final quarter of 2017.
Almost every metric.
The moment we saw that Tesla disappointed, our mind immediately went to Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas, Tesla analyst and part-time High Priest in the Church of Muskism. As we've talked about before, Jonas' approach to monitoring Tesla reminds us of a parole officer who falls in love with their parolee. Succinctly put; Adam Jonas got that TSLA thirst ferreal. So was Jonas rending garments when Tesla announced that instead of making 5,000 Model 3s every week, the company made 1,550 apparently bespoke Model 3s in three months?
You bet your ass he wasn't!
From Jonas' note today:
Model 3 production rate exiting 4Q17 easily 50% above our pace of delivery forecast for 1Q. Our 1Q Model 3 delivery forecast of 8k units implies a pace of less than 700 per week. Tesla reported that it produced 793 Model 3s in the last 7 days of 2017 and in the last few days hit a rate of over 1k per week. Both are well ahead of the weekly delivery rate implied in our 1Q forecast. In other words, Tesla appears to be currently producing the Model 3 at a pace is well of the pace implied in our earnings model.
The thing about dancing the Limbo is that you gotta pick the right person to hold the stick. Might we all dance the Limbo with Adam Jonas in 2018.