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Markets Noticeably Upset That Facebook And America Are Both Having An Existential Crisis On Monday

Happy Monday, fuckers.
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There are two ways you can look at last week's record $34.6 billion worth of inflows into U.S. equities.


If you want to put a positive spin on that, you could argue, as JPMorgan did, that it's evidence of the marginal buyer (i.e. the retail bid) returning to the market with a vengeance.

If you want to put a negative spin on it, you could say that it's a contrarian indicator because some of it represents Joe E*Trader (that's a gross oversimplification, but it's funny and that's what counts).

As of right now - so, as of 1:30 p.m. ET on Monday - it looks like the contrarian indicator characterization is more accurate, because stocks are in a tailspin thanks to a confluence of factors, not the least of which is the Facebook data breach debacle which has shares down the most since 2012 (click to enlarge):


But while the Facebook drama is certainly weighing on markets (as of 10:00 a.m., 46% of the S&P point decline was from tech), that's hardly the only problem.

One of the other overhangs is the fact that Donald Trump is still President and, relatedly, that he still has a Twitter account. Here's a fun screengrab from CNBC:

Yes, "Trump's Twitter meltdown" and by that, they mean the fact that he spent the weekend going on the offensive against Robert Mueller, a questionable "strategy" to say the least. I'm not a lawyer (and I'll probably never be one because my LSAT score is expired and I am not taking that fucker again), but my guess would be that tweeting about an ongoing probe into collusion, obstruction of justice, and financial crimes is probably not the best idea if you are the target of that probe.

The implication from Trump's weekend tweets (and he was at it again this morning, after overdosing on Fox & Friends) is that the firing of Andrew McCabe might well presage an overt (as opposed to covert) attempt to stymie Mueller's investigation. If that were to happen, well then you can look forward to an epic USDJPY nosedive, a harrowing VIX spike, and everything that entails for risk assets.

And that's hardly the end of it. Remember that this week will see Jerome Powell attempt the impossible: by most accounts, this will be a "hawkish" hike and if the median 2018 dot were to shift up, that would put Powell in the position of having to explain, at his first presser as Fed Chair no less, how a hawkish lean accompanying a rate hike and a shift up in the median dot doesn't put the Fed at risk of inverting the curve.

That would be a difficult sell for more seasoned "pros" like Draghi and Kuroda (of course Kuroda would never find himself in the position of delivering a hawkish spin on a rate hike, but let's just pretend) - the chances Powell can pull that off are next to zero.

Taken together, all of the above suggests that markets could be in for a rather trying week.

Of course if it gets too bad, Trump can always dispatch Larry Kudlow to try and talk everyone off the ledge - something tells me CNBC would be glad to have him on.



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