Not to blow up their negotiating spot here, but the British have had a few problems coming up with a plan for their departure from the European Union. That is set to happen in just over seven months, but figuring out what exactly “that” will be sorta has to be done in the next two. Both sides have said they are cautiously optimistic about doing so, even though they’ve achieved essentially nothing over the past 17 months.
Last month, the British thought they had figured out what Brexit meant, although doing so nearly brought down the government. Worse, all that trouble produced a plan whose barest outlines were met with a “not a chance” from the other side. Now, this got the U.K. thinking—not that Brexit was a terrible idea which should be abandoned, but that the way to solve the country’s whole lack-of-leverage issue was to come up with not just one plan, but two. Should be no problem.
The government said Thursday that it will ensure “the U.K. will be ready from day one in all scenarios,” but policy analysts and industry experts say Britain won’t have the necessary infrastructure or staff to be ready to cope with a host of new requirements such as border controls, customs inspections or regulatory approval processes…. Ministers are also hoping that outlining the consequences of exiting the bloc without any agreement will help persuade British lawmakers skeptical of Mrs. May’s Brexit vision to get behind her plan or risk something worse.
One of the technical notices covered financial services and made the rather stupendous declaration that the EU will be super-sorry if it doesn’t make a deal, because then EU companies would be shut out of capital markets. And, in at least one very low-margin arena, it might be right.
Reuters’ analysis, based on surveys released by central banks in the five biggest trading centres, shows forex trading volumes in Britain had grown by 23 percent to a record daily average of $2.7 trillion (£2.1 trillion) in April compared to April 2016….
“You may have all the uncertainty around Brexit, but this is outweighed by London’s time zone, its language, and the advantages that come from having the biggest market.”