We are told that nobody cares about the federal budget deficit—which is ballooning, by the way—anymore. This is not entirely true. Jeff Gundlach cares. He’s worried, in fact. And not just because he hasn’t adopted the only bipartisan thing in Washington, which is the new belief that it doesn’t matter how deeply in debt is the United States, but because he’s worried there’s worse on the horizon, and that a yawning budget gap, be it due to an extremely ill-advised tax cut or to whatever President Warren or Sanders plan to spend, will make us all feel like our office was just raided and inventoried by our employer, or that we just bought a lake full of counterfeit wine, but worse.

Gundlach now sees a 40% to 45% chance of a recession within six months, and a 65% chance in the next year. He pointed to several indicators that are flashing red lights, including the spread between consumer confidence expectations and current conditions, which is near all-time lows./The money manager also sounded an alarm on the “soaring” U.S. deficit, which could get “much, much worse in the next recession.”

What’s a man of many enthusiasms to do when facing such unpleasantness? Why, focus his attention on one particular enthusiasm.

“I am certainly long gold,” Gundlach said in an investor webcast Thursday. He added his trade is based on the expectation that the dollar will finish the year lower…. The so-called bond king noted that 2019 has been “the opposite of 2018” because gold, bitcoin, stocks and bonds are all making money.

‘Bond King’ Jeffrey Gundlach bets on gold, sees rising recession chances, dollar decline [CNBC]


Jeffrey Gundlach Had A Little Party Last Night

December 7, 1941. November 22, 1963. December 4, 2009. All dates of such historical and cultural significance that if you asked someone where they were that day, they'd surely be able to tell you. Because they weren't just any old days; they were moments when everything changed. The bombing of Pearl Harbor; the assassination of JFK; and, perhaps most importantly, the firing of Jeffrey Gundlach from the TWC Group, which had taken issue with his decision to start his own firm, and choose to express that anger by first escorting him out of the building and second raiding his offices, where they found an amount of adult films and sexual devices that suggested Gundlach was operating an online wholesale sex shop distributor and keeping the inventory at work. TCW also sued its former employee and at the time, rather than roll over and take it which is something he would never do, Gundlach vowed to fight back and clear up the misconception that TCW was the victim in the situation. On the contrary, JG told people, the real victim was US taxpayers who were "promised" Gundlach's services and had to settled for a subpar bond manager when his relationship with the firm was terminated. Gundlach ultimately emerged victorious* and perhaps even more satisfying to The Pope was the number of TCW employees and clients who followed him en masse to his new company, the aptly named DoubleLine Capital. We're not sure how you celebrated last night's hugely significant anniversary, but we do know how Gundlach did: