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After thinking about it for a whole day, President Trump has decided that he won’t unilaterally cut taxes to prop up the economy in aid of his reelection campaign next year. But maybe he should be. After all, the Fed minutes from three weeks ago don’t make it sound like central bank is paying particular attention to his ranting and raving. Nor do they appear inclined to listen to the voteless Neel Kashkari, who’s having to take his dovish views to the pages of a foreign newspaper just to find a sympathetic ear. Worse, the Real America’s Real Economy is sending a sputtering warning sign.

Shipments of recreational vehicles to dealers have fallen about 20% so far this year after a 4.1% drop last year, according to data from the RV Industry Association. Multiyear drops in shipments have preceded the last three recessions.

“The RV industry is better at calling recessions than economists are,” said Michael Hicks, an economist at Ball State University, in Muncie, Ind.

An Economic Warning Sign: RV Shipments Are Slipping [WSJ]
In Reversal, Trump Says He Is No Longer Considering Tax Cuts [WSJ]
Fed says July rate cut was ‘recalibration’ and not part of ‘pre-set’ course for more easing [CNBC]
Trump says the Fed is the ‘only problem’ with the economy, calls Powell ‘a golfer who can’t putt’ [CNBC]
Financial Times op-ed: The U.S. Federal Reserve should use forward guidance now [Minneapolis Fed]


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Maybe Neel Kashkari Doesn’t Want To Be Fed Chair

Do not presume to know the machinations going on within his shiny dome.


Jay Powell Says That’s Just, Like, The President’s Opinion, Man

Trumpian browbeating only goes so far when the rats are abandoning the ship at this rate.


A Newly Frisky Janet Yellen Is Ready To Set The Banks Free

At long last, the banking industry has turned the tide and begun to win its existential battle against diligent regulation.


Jay Powell Is The Maestro Of Misery

No one has ever quite mastered being no things to all people quite like the Fed chief.