“I think the war on COVID is almost over,” Empire Financial Research’s Enrique Abeyta says.
“Of course,” you might respond. “The war is almost over because COVID has just about won.”
By mid-September, Abeyta, who holds a bachelor’s degree in finance and owns magazines dedicated to heavy metal and tattoos but whose expertise in public health is not otherwise apparent on his LinkedIn page, continues, there will “maybe” be “less than 50” daily fatalities in the U.S.
“Yeesh,” you think. “That’s gruesome. I mean, sure, 1,400 people (at least) and rising are dying every day, and about 70,000 people (at least) get it every day, and (at least) 4.4 million people have or have had it, and 150,000 of them have died. But I still don’t think enough of us will be dead by mid-September for there to be so few left than only 50 of us a day will be dying.” And then you realize, Abeyta is not the most grimly pessimistic man on the planet, but the most cock-eyedly optimistic one.
“Everywhere in the world that has been hit early hit a certain amount of antibody prevalence or exposure,” says Abeyta. This was true regardless of whether areas went to full lockdown like Italy, no lockdown at all like Sweden, or somewhere in between. In all areas, cases and mortality rates “collapsed” after about two months.
You mean like it did here after those brutal weeks in March and April, two months before a certain immunocompromised former presidential and Federal Reserve candidate took a quick and unprotected trip to Tulsa?
“We are on the precipice of COVID almost being over, or functionally as a major impact on society, mortality, etc.,” says Abeyta.
One way or other, Enrique, you’re surely right.