Lapse in Extra Unemployment Benefits to Hurt U.S. Recovery, Economists Say [WSJ]
“It could take weeks and weeks and weeks to get this money to people, which means of course they will default on a number of obligations,” said Trevon Logan, an economics professor at Ohio State University…. Missing those payments could trigger evictions, fines and late fees—costs that consumers will try to avoid by pulling back on other kinds of spending, he said….
“If we went to a world with no supplement, we’d see spending of the unemployed fall,” said Peter Ganong, a University of Chicago economist and one of the study’s co-authors. “Because there are so many unemployed people right now, that would have a really dramatic effect on the macroeconomy.”

Layoffs: 1.4M more workers likely filed jobless claims as states pull back on reopenings [USA Today]
Such a tally would push total initial claims past a mind-blowing 55 million since pandemic-induced business shutdowns and layoffs began in mid-March….
“The increase in continued claims suggests that rehiring may be pausing as the rise in COVID-19 cases causes more businesses to shut down or scale back reopening plans,” economist Nancy Vanden Houten of Oxford Economics wrote in a note to clients…. “The recent improvement in the rate of hiring maybe stalling out,” Barclays said in a research note.

‘Ample room’ for more gold gains as hedge funds late to the party, adviser says [MarketWatch]
Gold of late has caught its own momentum apart from its fundamentals. Analysts at Goldman Sachs point out gold has broken away from real, or inflation-adjusted, interest rates, and it is outperforming dollar alternatives….
“There is ample room for Fear of Missing Out to kick in as the managed money and big spec hedge funds sat out much of the recent rally,” [Sitka Capital Management’s Mike Shedlock] writes. “And with 105,025 short contracts there is plenty of fuel for a short squeeze too.”

Commerzbank Beat Is Marred by Wirecard Hit in Dramatic Quarter [Bloomberg]
The unexpected hit blemished an otherwise solid quarter, with net income of 220 million euros ($261 million) well above analyst estimates. The bank’s online broker Comdirect posted record revenue from trading when volumes surged during the pandemic….
The payments company had a credit facility of 200 million euros with Commerzbank, of which about 90% was drawn at the time of its undoing, Bloomberg has reported…. That hit is now likely to push Commerzbank into the red for the full year. But even before it cut the profit outlook, analysts were already expecting the bank to post a full-year loss of about 300 million euros.

Richard Branson’s Virgin Atlantic files for U.S. bankruptcy protection [AP via MarketWatch]
A spokeswoman for Virgin Atlantic cast the Chapter 15 bankruptcy filing as part of a court process to carry out a restructuring plan that the airline announced last month. The process is supported by a majority of the airline’s creditors, and the company hopes to emerge from the process in September, she said…. Virgin Atlantic’s move follows bankruptcy filings in the U.S. by Latin America’s two biggest airlines, Latam and Avianca, and by Mexico’s Aeromexico since the start of the pandemic. Virgin’s sister airline Virgin Australia filed for protection from creditors in its home country in April….
Atlanta-based Delta Air Lines, which owns 49% of the airline, agreed to defer payments it was owed, and hedge fund Davidson Kempner agreed to lend Virgin Atlantic 170 million pounds.

Greenlight’s David Einhorn is betting big on inflation. Here are his latest moves [CNBC Pro]
“We believe the market groupthink that profitless growth stocks that trade at astronomical valuations, in part on the basis that interest rates are low, will be disrupted by rising inflation expectations even in the absence of a corresponding increase in Treasury yields,” the firm said in the letter.

Jim Cramer: ‘I can’t take how stupidly bullish this market can be’ [CNBC]
“Last night, I told you not to overthink the run in the Covid stocks. Sometimes the market rallies and it makes perfect sense,” the “Mad Money” host said. “Then there are days like today, when I can’t take how stupidly bullish this market can be….”
“Never underestimate the power of enthusiastic buyers who do not know what they’re doing….”
“Sometimes the stock market roars and it makes perfect sense, but there’s also plenty of stupidity, especially during earnings season when there’s so much news that it’s hard to keep track of what’s going on,” he said…. “Turns out the market was just stupid because today, on the exact same news ... Sorrento rallied 31% to just under $13. The stock market’s supposed to be efficient, but somehow it took Wall Street six days to process this news.”

Covid Surge Threatens M.B.A. Programs’ Already Limited Back-to-School Plans [WSJ]
As coronavirus cases have surged nationwide over the summer, “it became clear that what we could deliver would not be sustainable amid the shifting situation,” Howie Kaufold, the school’s vice dean, wrote in a letter to Wharton’s M.B.A. students Friday…. “A lot of the value of the program is not only the instruction but the network you create, the relationships with the other people in the program, the opportunities to engage with alumni and faculty,” said Peter Johnson, an assistant dean at the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley. “It’s not that you can’t do those things remotely; it’s just different….”
Some students are questioning whether even a partially online degree is worth it. Harvard said this summer that its incoming fall M.B.A. class would be about 20% smaller than normal after many students took up its offer to let them defer their studies. At Wharton, a group of M.B.A. students petitioned the school for a tuition discount even before it decided to shift to chiefly online studies. The school has said it won’t adjust tuition this year.

Related

Opening Bell: 05.03.12

Banks Get Silent Treatment At Fed Meeting (WSJ) A meeting Wednesday between a top Federal Reserve official and six bank bosses was notable largely for long silences from the central bank's side of the table. Fed governor Daniel Tarullo met with the executives to discuss the recent "stress tests" and to hear out the banks' concerns over proposed new regulations. Mr. Tarullo and the bankers exchanged thoughts about the tests, but the Fed official didn't respond when the chief executives laid out their new-rule concerns, starting with a Fed proposal to limit the biggest banks' exposure to other firms and governments, said people familiar with the meeting. Carlyle Prices IPO At Lower Range (WSJ) The downshift came after some mutual-fund investors pushed for a better deal, said people familiar with the matter. Also, they said, Carlyle hoped a lower price would help ensure good first-day and longer-term performance. People close to Carlyle said the firm could have stuck with a price in the original range, but it wished to attract some larger investors who wanted a lower price. Carlyle Founders’ Stakes Valued at $1 Billion Each Post-IPO (Bloomberg) “This is their legacy,” Reena Aggarwal, a finance professor at Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business in Washington, said in a telephone interview. “They started the firm from nothing, so their human capital and their financial wealth are tied up in the company. They need to have this liquidity event.” U.S. documents allege HSBC money-laundering lapses (Reuters) ...documents allege that from 2005, the bank violated the Bank Secrecy Act and other anti-money laundering laws on a massive scale. HSBC did so, they say, by not adequately reviewing hundreds of billions of dollars in transactions for any that might have links to drug trafficking, terrorist financing and other criminal activity. In some of the documents, prosecutors allege that HSBC intentionally flouted the law. The bank created an operation that was a "systemically flawed sham paper-product designed solely to make it appear that the Bank has complied" with the Bank Secrecy Act and is able to detect money laundering, wrote William J. Ihlenfeld II, U.S. Attorney for the Northern District of West Virginia, in a draft of a 2010 letter addressed to Justice Department officials. Buffett Trails S&P 500 for Third Straight Year (Bloomberg) FYI. Fancy A Drink With Richard Branson? (Virgin via Daily Intel) Richard Branson is now on board all Virgin Atlantic flights 'in spirit' - thanks to new Little Richard ice cubes. Virgin Atlantic is giving Upper Class passengers the chance to cool their in-flight drinks with bespoke Richard Branson ice cubes. They will be served on board one of the first flights of the airline's new Upper Class Cabin this May... The ice cubes have been created using the exact measurements of Sir Richard's head and feature an impressive level of detail. The mould for the ice cubes took a team of four skilled designers a painstaking six weeks to create using detailed photographic techniques and laser scanning technology to create the perfect likeness of Sir Richard. Jobless claims tumble, calms job market fears (Reuters) The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless aid fell more than expected last week, easing fears the labor market recovery was stalling. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 27,000 to a seasonally adjusted 365,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday. The biggest weekly drop in claims since early May last year helped to lift some of the dark cloud cast over the labor market by a report on Wednesday from payrolls processor ADP showing private employers in April created the fewest jobs in seven months. John Arnold Retiring At 38 (NYP) Arnold, who has an estimated net worth of $3.5 billion, said in a letter to investors that he was closing the Centaurus Energy Master Fund in order to "pursue other interests." In the letter, he said the fund had performed "better than I could have hoped for or imagined" with returns on investments consistently high, "often in triple digits." Arnold was a major force behind the rapid rise of energy trader Enron in the 1990s. SocGen Profit Hit by Restructuring Plan (WSJ) Société Générale said Thursday that first-quarter earnings at its investment bank rebounded from the tough previous quarter but fell from the year-earlier period, pressured by a restructuring plan aimed at sheltering the French bank from Europe's still-smouldering debt crisis. Société Générale, France's second-largest lender by market value and the first to report quarterly earnings, said net profit dropped 20% to €732 million ($963.2 million) from €916 million a year earlier, hit mainly by losses on loan portfolios it sold. Independent Counsel For MF Global Is Sought (WSJ) Criminal and civil investigators have been looking into the case, but so far have said little about the progress of their investigation. That has led some Republicans and customers of MF Global to question whether the investigation is being slowed by a desire to show deference to the firm's former chief executive, Jon Corzine. Mr. Corzine, a former U.S. senator and governor of New Jersey, has been a prominent Democratic fund raiser and supporter of the Obama administration. The letter circulated by Rep. Grimm's office acknowledges that while "we have no direct evidence" that the Department of Justice "is providing special treatment…perception matters a great deal." Still, the letter concludes that "an independent investigation is urgently needed." Kona teen nears perfect school attendance record for 13 years (WHT) Cetraro thinks improving and encouraging attendance requires a more comprehensive approach, one that goes beyond sanctions. When Cetraro was in elementary school, she appreciated privileges like running in the sprinklers, being first in line for lunch or dismissal, having the chance to act as the teacher’s assistant and getting shave ice. She said these incentives served as powerful motivators.

Opening Bell: 11.6.15

Bill Gross 100% of rate hike in December; Goldman pulls out stops for junior bankers; Jim Cramer says he was a moron; "Battery Charge Dropped In Dildo Attack Case"; and more.

Opening Bell: 04.12.12

Buffett Feasts On Goldman Scraps (WSJ) Details of one trade in particular have recently caused a stir in the market. In November, Goldman sold about $85 million of loans in troubled newspaper publisher Lee Enterprises Goldman sold the debt at about 65 cents on the dollar, having bought it months before at around 80 cents, resulting in a loss of at least $13 million. The buyer: a unit of Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc., according to several people familiar with the matter. Mr. Buffett has since made a tidy paper profit on the loans, which are now worth about 82 cents on the dollar, the people said. Jim Chanos: Chinese Banks ‘Great Shorts,’ Won’t Be Broken Up (CNBC) Chanos, the head of Kynikos Associates, has been betting against China — despite its role as a global economic leader — primarily because he believes the country is overbuilt and does not have the internal demand to support its ambitious growth plans. Nowhere has that trend been more apparent than in the banking system. "If you looked at the performance of the banks over the last two years...they have been great shorts," Chanos said. "They have been going down — they're down 30 percent over the last two years." George Soros: Exceptional Measures Needed to Save EU (FT) "Other countries have gone through similar experiences. Latin American countries suffered a lost decade after 1982, and Japan has been stagnating for a quarter of a century; both have survived. But the European Union is not a country and it is unlikely to survive. The deflationary debt trap threatens to destroy a still-incomplete political union," he wrote. Blackstone President To Raise For Obama (Morning Money) "Tony James, the president of Blackstone Group LP, has agreed to hold a fundraiser for... Obama’s re-election campaign, according to two people familiar...By agreeing to raise money for Obama, James has diversified Blackstone’s political bets for the November election. Blackstone Chairman Stephen Schwarzman has been raising money for former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, the likely Republican nominee." SEC, Goldman to Settle Research Case (Reuters) U.S. securities regulators are preparing to announce that Goldman Sachs will pay $22 million to settle allegations the bank did not have adequate policies to prevent research from being passed inappropriately to preferred clients, people familiar with the matter said on Wednesday. BlackRock's Street Shortcut (WSJ) BlackRock is planning to launch a trading platform this year that would let the world's largest money manager and its peers bypass Wall Street and trade bonds directly with one another. The electronic trading hub has the potential to reduce a lucrative revenue stream for investment banks at a time when their businesses are being squeezed by lackluster markets and new regulations put in place to curb risk in the aftermath of the financial crisis. The trading platform would be run by the New York-based company's BlackRock Solutions arm and offer 46 clients—including sovereign-wealth funds, insurance companies and other money managers—the ability to trade in corporate bonds, mortgage securities and other assets, company executives say. Under the plan, the platform would seek to match buyers and sellers of the same securities, in a process known as "crossing trades." BlackRock Solutions would charge a small fee for the service that would be much lower than Wall Street's trading commissions. New Yorker breaks up subway scuffle, snacks in hand (NYDN) Sonder, 24, played the role of hungry hero “two or three Thursdays ago” after hopping on an uptown 6 train at Spring St. The calm inside the subway car was shattered a minute later when a tussle broke out between a man and a woman. “I turned around and I saw these two kicking each other pretty viciously,” said the sturdy Sonder, who stands six-feet tall and weighs 200 pounds. “I stepped over and tried to see if I could help.” Mid Pringle, Sonder thrust himself between the pugilists. More chips were eaten, but no other punches or kicks were thrown. “I just got caught up in the moment,” said Sonder, who was also holding a bag of gummy bears during the incident. Dimon Vows Fight Moynihan Lost Over Claims From Mortgages (Bloomberg) “We are going to fight repurchase claims that pretend the steep decline in home prices and unprecedented market conditions had no impact on loan performance,” Dimon, chief executive officer of the New York-based lender, wrote in the April 4 letter. He’ll also oppose “securities claims brought by sophisticated investors who understood and accepted the risks.” Jobless Claims Post Jump; PPI Up, Trade Deficit Down (Reuters) Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 380,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday. The prior week's figure was revised up to 367,000 from the previously reported 357,000. Fur Flies in High-Stakes Airlifts of Animals by Lufthansa (Bloomberg) An African white rhinoceros peers through the bars of its Frankfurt compound, while across the floor a Madagascan chameleon inches around its vivarium and an Andean alpaca plucks hay from a bale. It’s not a scene from the city’s zoo but from Deutsche Lufthansa AG’s Animal Lounge, a state-of-the-art complex that’s at the center of the German carrier’s plans to dominate the most specialized part of the $66 billion air-cargo industry. Lufthansa, Air France-KLM Group and Dubai-based Emirates, which transports thoroughbreds for Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, horseracing’s leading owner, are competing in a high- stakes market. Premium profit margins come with the risk of an in-flight death involving a beloved family pet, top-ranked stallion or priceless panda. “It’s not like pharmaceuticals, where your main concern is the temperature,” said Animal Lounge Director Axel Heitmann. “If a bag of fish leaks it needs replacing with the right kind of water and the right oxygen. And if something goes wrong you can’t just hand a customer $1,000 and tell him to buy another pet. He wants the dog or cat he’s had for 10 years.” KKR Invests in China Cord Blood (WSJ) Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. L.P. will invest $65 million into China Cord Blood Corp., the country's largest operator of services for umbilical cord blood that is rich in stem cells, to capitalize on China's fast growing healthcare services industry. Police: Dealer tied 89 bags to penis, peed at the station (Philly) Police Corporal Christopher Eiserman said another officer was on routine patrol Friday when he pulled Ray Woods over for a broken rear light and found marijuana in his car. When the officer searched Woods before placing him in the police cruiser, he discovered "a large bulge" in the front of his pants, Eiserman said. Police say Woods actually had the balls to deny that there was any contraband down there. “He stopped him for the traffic violation and one thing led to another," Eiserman said. Back at the station, Eiserman said, police discovered that Woods had tied a large plastic bag around his penis that contained a whopping 89 small bags of suspected heroin and cocaine. Then things got messy. “I tried to remove it. Unfortunately, and I don't know if it was nervousness or not, but he started urinating all over," Eiserman said. While it wasn't exactly what Eiserman had in mind when he started his shift Friday, he couldn't help but chuckle at the ingenuity, or lack thereof, of street-level drug dealers. “In 14 years, I’ve seen it down their pants, in their a--, but I've never seen it tied to their penis," he said.

Opening Bell: 11.08.12

On Wall Street, Time To Mend Fences With Obama (NYT) Few industries have made such a one-sided bet as Wall Street did in opposing President Obama and supporting his Republican rival. The top five sources of contributions to Mr. Romney, a former top private equity executive, were big banks like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. Wealthy financiers — led by hedge fund investors — were the biggest group of givers to the main “super PAC” backing Mr. Romney, providing almost $33 million, and gave generously to outside groups in races around the country. On Wednesday, Dan Loeb, who had supported Mr. Obama in 2008, was sanguine. “You win some, you lose some,” he said in an interview. “We can all disagree. I have friends and we have spirited discussions. Sure, I am not getting invited to the White House anytime soon, but as citizens of the country we are all friendly.” [...] “Wall Street is now going to have to figure out how to make this relationship work,” said Glenn Schorr, an analyst who follows the big banks for the investment bank Nomura. “It’s not impossible, but it’s not the starting point they had hoped for.” Morgan Stanley Reassures Its Bankers (WSJ) The New York bank said Monday that investment-banking chief Paul Taubman would leave the firm at year-end. Mr. Taubman was passed over for a new job overseeing both the trading and investment-banking operations, people involved in the process said. The position went to Colm Kelleher, who has overseen sales and trading. To calm nerves and soothe egos among the firms' bankers, Morgan Stanley gathered its new team of investment-banking leaders in New York this week. Mr. Kelleher and one of his new banking lieutenants, Franck Petitgas, traveled from their London office, and Mr. Petitgas spent much of the week meeting with managers in the investment-banking division and senior bankers, people familiar with the discussions said. Top executives reassured senior bankers Monday that the investment-banking business was a priority for Morgan Stanley. In a memo to employees, Chief Executive James Gorman said Morgan Stanley would "continue to build on our leadership position in investment banking and capital markets." The messages came as some rank-and-file bankers at Morgan Stanley privately expressed surprise and dismay at the news from Mr. Taubman, who announced his departure to colleagues in an emotional meeting Monday with Messrs. Kelleher and Gorman in attendance. Some Morgan Stanley bankers said they worried that the new chiefs of investment banking didn't have the stature of Mr. Taubman, who spent a significant amount of time as a mergers banker and was known internally for his staunch support of the firm's investment-banking franchise. "People are upset," one senior person inside the company said. Wall Street Trades Foiled Romney Dreams For Bowles Hopes (Bloomberg) Wall Street executives who lost a bet that Republican Mitt Romney would defeat President Barack Obama are bracing for tougher regulation and hoping a deal can be struck with Congress to cut the deficit. Obama’s choice to succeed Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner will be watched closely for signs about the administration’s approach to business and the deficit, industry executives said. Erskine Bowles, who served as chief of staff under former President Bill Clinton, would be a sign that Obama is willing to endorse a bipartisan debt-reduction plan supported by many business leaders, they said. “With the appointment of the Treasury secretary, Obama will be sending an important message to the public and to the foreign governments who own a lot of Treasuries,” Curtis Arledge, chief executive officer of Bank of New York Mellon Corp.’s investment-management arm, which oversees $1.4 trillion, told journalists in New York yesterday. “If he goes with somebody like Erskine Bowles, then the message will be that he cares about the deficit and is serious about cutting it.” Focus Shifts To Fiscal Cliff (WSJ) Barry Knapp, head of U.S. equity portfolio strategy at Barclays, turned more bearish after seeing the election results, arguing that the risk of fiscal-cliff disaster increased to more than half, from about 30% before. "When I look at what happened, I see a government that grew farther apart, which might be worse than the status quo," Mr. Knapp said. "The risk of going off the cliff has just gotten huge." Jobless Claims Fall (WSJ) Initial jobless claims, which are a measure of layoffs, decreased by 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 355,000 in the week ended Nov. 3, the Labor Department said Thursday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires expected 365,000 new applications for jobless benefits. Greek Jobless Rate Hits New High (WSJ) Elstat, the Greek statistical agency, Thursday said the seasonally adjusted rate of unemployment increased to 25.4% from 24.8% in July and 18.4% in August 2011. That was just below the 25.5% unemployment rate recorded by Spain in the same month, the highest in the European Union. Herd of elephants go on drunken rampage after mammoth booze up (Metro) The trunk and disorderly mammals ransacked a shop, three houses and ruined crops in the eastern village of Dumurkota, India. Police say the gang of over-the-limit tuskers downed more than 500litres of moonshine alcohol, managing to drink the place dry in a matter of minutes. The unruly mob demolished dozens of houses in their desperate hunt for more booze after hoovering up the hard stuff in record time. Local police officer Asish Samanat said the drunken elephants were more 'aggressive' than usual after their mammoth drinking session. 'Unfortunately these animals live in close proximity to man and they recognised the smell of the drink,' he explained. 'They were like any other drunk - aggressive and unreasonable but much, much bigger.' ECB Stands Ready to Buy Bonds as Economy Weakens (Bloomberg) “We are ready to undertake” Outright Monetary Transactions, “which will help to avoid extreme scenarios,” Draghi said today at a press conference in Frankfurt after policy makers left the benchmark interest rate at a historic low of 0.75 percent. “The risks surrounding the economic outlook remain on the downside” and underlying inflation pressures “should remain moderate,” he said. SocGen CEO Blames ‘Stupid’ Accounting for Profit Drop (CNBC) “Exceptional items are related in particular to this stupid accounting thing which means that when you have a credit that is improving, your CDS is going down and you have to recognise negative revenues,” Frederic Oudea told CNBC in Paris. SocGen’s third-quarter net profit was 85 million euros, down by 86 percent on the same period in 2011, after losses on asset sales. That was lower than analysts’ mean estimate of 139.1 million euros. Blackstone Leads Hedge Funds Attracting Bond-Rally Bears (Bloomberg) Funds that bet on both gains and losses in credit attracted $12.6 billion of deposits in the three months ended Sept. 30, the most since the period ended Dec. 31, 2007, according to HFR. Blackstone Group LP raised $4.05 billion during the period for its debt unit, which includes so-called long-short funds. Panning Capital Management, which was founded by Kieran Goodwin this year, started such a fund on Nov. 1 with $500 million. Two-Tier Global Housing Market Could Lead to Bubble: Goldman (CNBC) In a report titled: “Just don’t look down some house markets are flying again” Goldman argues easy money policies by the world’s major central banks has had a ripple effect on countries which have avoided the worst of the global financial crisis, boosting their house prices. According to Goldman, there now exist housing “high-flyers” - countries that have experienced real house price increases and “low-lyers” - countries where the housing market downturn appears to be more protracted. “High flyers” include Germany, Finland, Norway, France, Switzerland and Israel as well as Canada and Australia. The “low lyers” include the U.S., and the euro zone periphery of Spain, Greece, Italy and Ireland- but also those places where prices fell in the post-crisis period but have since stabilized such as the U.K., Japan and Denmark. Judge throws Dallas attorney back in jail after his Design District office trashed, vandalized with obscene drawings (DN) Attorney Tom Corea was charged earlier this year with four felonies alleging he stole from his clients. He was arrested, posted bond and was released. Weeks later, he was evicted for not paying rent for his upscale office in the 2000 block of Farrington Street near Interstate 35E and Market Center Boulevard, according to testimony before state District Judge Mike Snipes. Corea was ordered out by Oct. 31. When the president of the real estate company that represents the building, Doug Molny, showed up the next day to check out the property, he found “complete destruction,” including “penis graffiti on every single wall throughout the building,” Molny said. Written next to some of the penises was the name Doug. Molny said it appeared someone took a sledgehammer to granite counters. Additionally, doors, light fixtures, cabinets and appliances were destroyed or removed.