Fed Ramps Up Debate Over Taper Timing, Pace [WSJ]
Some officials have discussed concluding the purchases around October 2022 so they could lift rates later that year if the recovery is stronger or inflation is higher than now anticipated…. Because Fed officials have said they would provide ample notice before they start tapering, they look unlikely to initiate any taper at their next two meetings, in July or September.

Delta Variant of Covid-19 Isn’t Expected to Dent Robust U.S. Recovery [WSJ]
Economists are more concerned about firming inflation than the Delta variant as they assess the economic outlook.
“The variant is a significant downside risk for the economy, but that risk is more than offset by what are still very strong fundamentals,” said Oren Klachkin, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. “Consumers have a lot of cash and seem eager to spend on activities they couldn’t do for 18 months. And, for now, it seems like the vaccines should be able to keep the spike in cases fairly low.”

Rising Rents Threaten to Prop Up Inflation [NYT]
As people move out on their own again or return to cities and office jobs, and as existing renters find they can’t afford to buy a home in a booming housing market, demand for apartments and single-family rentals is rebounding — and even looking hot in some places. Rents last month rose 7 percent nationally from a year earlier…. Rental costs play an outsize role in the Consumer Price Index, so a meaningful rise in them could help keep that closely watched government price gauge, which has picked up sharply, higher for longer. Rents are only about half as important to the Federal Reserve’s preferred Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation index, but a long bout of high C.P.I. inflation may influence consumers’ expectations for future price gains, which could in turn quicken them.

Blackstone Earnings Rise as Growth Strategy Boosts Portfolio [WSJ]
The private-equity firm posted second-quarter net income of $1.31 billion, or $1.82 a share, it said Thursday. That compares with a profit of $568.3 million, or 81 cents a share, a year earlier.
The value of Blackstone’s private-equity portfolio climbed by 13.8% in the latest period, exceeding the roughly 8% gain for the S&P 500. Combined fund appreciation across its various business lines was the highest in the history of the firm.

Secretive Hedge Fund Raises $1 Billion to Make Big Leveraged Bets [Bloomberg]
The Eisler Capital Multi Strategy Fund is the region’s second-largest hedge fund launch this year and started trading on July 1, according to a person familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified because the details are private. The fund aims to leverage its bets by as much as four times to achieve gains of 12-15%, according to an investor document seen by Bloomberg…. The move also signals a new approach at Eisler, whose roots are in macro trading, with its main fund offering up to just 1.3 times leverage and a focus on not losing money. Since its launch in 2016, the Eisler Capital Master Fund has gained an annualized 6% through May with no down year, according to the investor document. That compares with an average annual 6.6% return among all hedge fund peers.
The new leveraged fund could potentially have gained 25.3% last year compared with the main fund’s 8% return….

Now anyone can use Ray Dalio’s instant-feedback tool on Zoom—if they dare [Quartz]
An outgrowth of Dalio’s commitment to building a culture of radical transparency, the dot system prompts employees to rate one another, on a scale of 1 to 10, on attributes like how well they listen or display “managerial courage….” A new Zoom integration means that Dalio’s dots could be coming to your company, too….
Rather than the 1-to-10 scale Bridgewater uses, the app simply gives users three choices: a thumbs-up, an “ok” for middling performance, and a “loop” to signify there’s some need for improvement. The feedback is public for all participants to see, unless you click a box to make it private. 

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Opening Bell: 4.22.21

The last SPAC; Blackstone booms; shorts aren’t dead; and more!

Ray Dalio (Getty Images)

Opening Bell: 6.17.20

Buying stocks; buying time; not buying CLOs; not paying bills; and more!

By Yolo0906 (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Opening Bell: 8.27.20

Time’s up at TikTok; Bridgewater downsizing; be careful what you wish for Alex Karp; and more!

Getty Images

Opening Bell: 9.12.16

Hedge funds bleed assets while Bridgewater raises $22.5 billion; Lockhart wants 'serious' discussion of rate hike this month; Man accused of robbing Kansas bank to get away from wife;

Opening Bell: 11.08.12

On Wall Street, Time To Mend Fences With Obama (NYT) Few industries have made such a one-sided bet as Wall Street did in opposing President Obama and supporting his Republican rival. The top five sources of contributions to Mr. Romney, a former top private equity executive, were big banks like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. Wealthy financiers — led by hedge fund investors — were the biggest group of givers to the main “super PAC” backing Mr. Romney, providing almost $33 million, and gave generously to outside groups in races around the country. On Wednesday, Dan Loeb, who had supported Mr. Obama in 2008, was sanguine. “You win some, you lose some,” he said in an interview. “We can all disagree. I have friends and we have spirited discussions. Sure, I am not getting invited to the White House anytime soon, but as citizens of the country we are all friendly.” [...] “Wall Street is now going to have to figure out how to make this relationship work,” said Glenn Schorr, an analyst who follows the big banks for the investment bank Nomura. “It’s not impossible, but it’s not the starting point they had hoped for.” Morgan Stanley Reassures Its Bankers (WSJ) The New York bank said Monday that investment-banking chief Paul Taubman would leave the firm at year-end. Mr. Taubman was passed over for a new job overseeing both the trading and investment-banking operations, people involved in the process said. The position went to Colm Kelleher, who has overseen sales and trading. To calm nerves and soothe egos among the firms' bankers, Morgan Stanley gathered its new team of investment-banking leaders in New York this week. Mr. Kelleher and one of his new banking lieutenants, Franck Petitgas, traveled from their London office, and Mr. Petitgas spent much of the week meeting with managers in the investment-banking division and senior bankers, people familiar with the discussions said. Top executives reassured senior bankers Monday that the investment-banking business was a priority for Morgan Stanley. In a memo to employees, Chief Executive James Gorman said Morgan Stanley would "continue to build on our leadership position in investment banking and capital markets." The messages came as some rank-and-file bankers at Morgan Stanley privately expressed surprise and dismay at the news from Mr. Taubman, who announced his departure to colleagues in an emotional meeting Monday with Messrs. Kelleher and Gorman in attendance. Some Morgan Stanley bankers said they worried that the new chiefs of investment banking didn't have the stature of Mr. Taubman, who spent a significant amount of time as a mergers banker and was known internally for his staunch support of the firm's investment-banking franchise. "People are upset," one senior person inside the company said. Wall Street Trades Foiled Romney Dreams For Bowles Hopes (Bloomberg) Wall Street executives who lost a bet that Republican Mitt Romney would defeat President Barack Obama are bracing for tougher regulation and hoping a deal can be struck with Congress to cut the deficit. Obama’s choice to succeed Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner will be watched closely for signs about the administration’s approach to business and the deficit, industry executives said. Erskine Bowles, who served as chief of staff under former President Bill Clinton, would be a sign that Obama is willing to endorse a bipartisan debt-reduction plan supported by many business leaders, they said. “With the appointment of the Treasury secretary, Obama will be sending an important message to the public and to the foreign governments who own a lot of Treasuries,” Curtis Arledge, chief executive officer of Bank of New York Mellon Corp.’s investment-management arm, which oversees $1.4 trillion, told journalists in New York yesterday. “If he goes with somebody like Erskine Bowles, then the message will be that he cares about the deficit and is serious about cutting it.” Focus Shifts To Fiscal Cliff (WSJ) Barry Knapp, head of U.S. equity portfolio strategy at Barclays, turned more bearish after seeing the election results, arguing that the risk of fiscal-cliff disaster increased to more than half, from about 30% before. "When I look at what happened, I see a government that grew farther apart, which might be worse than the status quo," Mr. Knapp said. "The risk of going off the cliff has just gotten huge." Jobless Claims Fall (WSJ) Initial jobless claims, which are a measure of layoffs, decreased by 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 355,000 in the week ended Nov. 3, the Labor Department said Thursday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires expected 365,000 new applications for jobless benefits. Greek Jobless Rate Hits New High (WSJ) Elstat, the Greek statistical agency, Thursday said the seasonally adjusted rate of unemployment increased to 25.4% from 24.8% in July and 18.4% in August 2011. That was just below the 25.5% unemployment rate recorded by Spain in the same month, the highest in the European Union. Herd of elephants go on drunken rampage after mammoth booze up (Metro) The trunk and disorderly mammals ransacked a shop, three houses and ruined crops in the eastern village of Dumurkota, India. Police say the gang of over-the-limit tuskers downed more than 500litres of moonshine alcohol, managing to drink the place dry in a matter of minutes. The unruly mob demolished dozens of houses in their desperate hunt for more booze after hoovering up the hard stuff in record time. Local police officer Asish Samanat said the drunken elephants were more 'aggressive' than usual after their mammoth drinking session. 'Unfortunately these animals live in close proximity to man and they recognised the smell of the drink,' he explained. 'They were like any other drunk - aggressive and unreasonable but much, much bigger.' ECB Stands Ready to Buy Bonds as Economy Weakens (Bloomberg) “We are ready to undertake” Outright Monetary Transactions, “which will help to avoid extreme scenarios,” Draghi said today at a press conference in Frankfurt after policy makers left the benchmark interest rate at a historic low of 0.75 percent. “The risks surrounding the economic outlook remain on the downside” and underlying inflation pressures “should remain moderate,” he said. SocGen CEO Blames ‘Stupid’ Accounting for Profit Drop (CNBC) “Exceptional items are related in particular to this stupid accounting thing which means that when you have a credit that is improving, your CDS is going down and you have to recognise negative revenues,” Frederic Oudea told CNBC in Paris. SocGen’s third-quarter net profit was 85 million euros, down by 86 percent on the same period in 2011, after losses on asset sales. That was lower than analysts’ mean estimate of 139.1 million euros. Blackstone Leads Hedge Funds Attracting Bond-Rally Bears (Bloomberg) Funds that bet on both gains and losses in credit attracted $12.6 billion of deposits in the three months ended Sept. 30, the most since the period ended Dec. 31, 2007, according to HFR. Blackstone Group LP raised $4.05 billion during the period for its debt unit, which includes so-called long-short funds. Panning Capital Management, which was founded by Kieran Goodwin this year, started such a fund on Nov. 1 with $500 million. Two-Tier Global Housing Market Could Lead to Bubble: Goldman (CNBC) In a report titled: “Just don’t look down some house markets are flying again” Goldman argues easy money policies by the world’s major central banks has had a ripple effect on countries which have avoided the worst of the global financial crisis, boosting their house prices. According to Goldman, there now exist housing “high-flyers” - countries that have experienced real house price increases and “low-lyers” - countries where the housing market downturn appears to be more protracted. “High flyers” include Germany, Finland, Norway, France, Switzerland and Israel as well as Canada and Australia. The “low lyers” include the U.S., and the euro zone periphery of Spain, Greece, Italy and Ireland- but also those places where prices fell in the post-crisis period but have since stabilized such as the U.K., Japan and Denmark. Judge throws Dallas attorney back in jail after his Design District office trashed, vandalized with obscene drawings (DN) Attorney Tom Corea was charged earlier this year with four felonies alleging he stole from his clients. He was arrested, posted bond and was released. Weeks later, he was evicted for not paying rent for his upscale office in the 2000 block of Farrington Street near Interstate 35E and Market Center Boulevard, according to testimony before state District Judge Mike Snipes. Corea was ordered out by Oct. 31. When the president of the real estate company that represents the building, Doug Molny, showed up the next day to check out the property, he found “complete destruction,” including “penis graffiti on every single wall throughout the building,” Molny said. Written next to some of the penises was the name Doug. Molny said it appeared someone took a sledgehammer to granite counters. Additionally, doors, light fixtures, cabinets and appliances were destroyed or removed.

under armour

Opening Bell: 5.4.21

Good times for p.e. giants; Tiger wants more money; and more!

Opening Bell: 9.9.15

Warren Buffett's got $32 billion to spend; Bridgewater losses; Permission to expense underwear; "Whale vomit set to fetch a whopping £7,000 ($10,763) in auction"; and more.

Opening Bell: 02.15.13

SEC Looks At Trades A Day Before Heinz Deal (NYT) Regulators are scrutinizing unusual trading surrounding the planned $23 billion takeover of the food company H. J. Heinz, raising questions about potential illegal activity in one of the biggest deals in recent memory, a person briefed on the matter said. The Securities and Exchange Commission opened an insider trading inquiry on Thursday as Berkshire Hathaway and the investment firm 3G Capital agreed to pay $72.50 a share for Heinz, this person said. Regulators first noticed a suspicious spike in trading on Wednesday. Deferred Pay Draws Fed's Scrutiny (WSJ) U.S. banks and securities firms would have to step up their compensation disclosures under rules being considered by the Federal Reserve, said a person familiar with the central bank's regulatory efforts. The rules are in the formative stages and wouldn't take effect for some time. But an early draft has circulated internally at the Fed, this person said, marking a step on the path toward a public proposal. The Fed's push ultimately could give investors sheaves of new data on how and when companies pay their employees—including scarce numbers on how much compensation has been promised but not yet paid out. Shifting Blame Muddles S&P Suit (WSJ) The Delphinus deal, which means "dolphin" in Latin and is the name of a small constellation in the Northern Hemisphere, was one of more than 30 CDOs included in the federal government's lawsuit against Standard & Poor's Ratings Services last week. Federal prosecutors say that S&P, a unit of McGraw-Hill Cos., disregarded its own standards when rating Delphinus and the other CDOs, misled investors and should cover losses suffered by federally insured banks and credit unions that bought the securities, which included bundles of subprime mortgages. The discrepancy could give S&P a way to counterattack the Justice Department as the two sides gird for a battle that legal experts say will be grueling. U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder is seeking more than $5 billion in damages from S&P, which claims the allegations are "meritless." The U.S. government's conflicting opinions about the Delphinus deal might be a problem if the civil-fraud suit goes to trial. The ratings firm probably will argue that "these banks aren't victims," says Samuel Buell, a former federal prosecutor who now is a law professor at Duke University. Ackman: Herbalife Short Unaffected By Icahn Stake (CNBC) In his first public comments following the disclosure of activist investor Carl Icahn's stake in Herbalife, hedge fund manager Bill Ackman, who made $1 billion short bet against the stock, told CNBC he remains convinced that "Herbalife is a pyramid scheme." Ackman's statement read, "We invest based on a careful analysis of the facts. After 18 months of due diligence, we have concluded that it is a certainty that Herbalife is a pyramid scheme. Our conclusions are unaffected by who is on the other side of the investment. Our goal was to shine a spotlight on Herbalife. To the extent Mr. Icahn is helping achieve this objective, we welcome his involvement." G-20 Seeks Common Ground on Currencies After Yen Split (Bloomberg) Group of 20 finance ministers and central bankers begin talks in Moscow today with investors seeking clarity on how comfortable they are with a sliding yen. Questions are being asked after the Group of Seven united around a pledge not to target exchange rates only to divide over its meaning for Japan. “We have to get to the bottom of this, of course, listen to our Japanese colleagues and how they explain this and what decisions they will take and what exchange-rate policy they will follow,” Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said in an interview yesterday before hosting the meeting. He said the G-20 should adopt more “specific” language opposing exchange-rate interference in a statement to be released tomorrow. Corvette's stick shift thwarts Orlando man (OS) Orlando police said the 20-year-old tried to carjack a man inside a Corvette near Orlando Regional Medical Center late last month, but couldn't steal the car because he didn't know how to use the clutch or stick-shift. He and his accomplice ran away from the car, but not before stealing the victim's wallet and cell phone, police said. Soon after the failed carjacking, the victim's credit card was used at a McDonald's on Kirkman Road. Surveillance video inside the restaurant showed Sayles at the register, placing an order at about 12:15 a.m. Jan. 28. Not long after, the stolen cellphone's internal GPS registered with the phone company. Authorities tracked the phone to a home on Grandiflora Drive in a neighborhood off Kirkman Road. On Feb. 8, police went to the home, and Sayles answered the door. Officers noted in their arrest report that they immediately recognized him from the surveillance video inside the McDonald's. When asked why the victim's stolen cellphone would detect at his house, the report said, Sayles said a lot of people come to his residence and they could have brought it. One-Man Bank Keeps German Village Business Running (Reuters) The Raiffeisen Gammesfeld eG cooperative bank in southern Germany is one of the country's 10 smallest banks by deposits and is the only one to be run by just one member of staff. Small banks like this dominate the German banking landscape. Rooted in communities, they offer a limited range of accounts and loans to personal and local business customers. While numbers have shrunk from around 7,000 in the 1970s to around 1,100 now, cooperative banks like Raiffeisen Gammesfeld provide competition for Germany's two largest banks - Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank. A typical day's work for Breiter involves providing villagers with cash for their day-to-day needs and arranging small loans for local businesses. Not to mention cleaning the one-story building that houses the bank, which is 200 meters from his own front door. Moving from a bigger bank, where it was all "sell, sell, sell", Gammesfeld-born Breiter says taking up this job in 2008 was the best decision he ever made. The advertisement required someone to work by hand, without computers. The typewriter and the adding machine bear the signs of constant use, although Breiter, in his standard work outfit of jeans and jumper, does now have a computer. "It's so much fun," Breiter, a keen mathematician, says as he deals with a steady stream of lunchtime customers. He knows his customers by name and regularly offers advice on jobs, relationship and money woes. Ex-Analyst At SAC Felt Pressured For Tips (WSJ) The Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Manhattan U.S. Attorney's office now are using the statements from the analyst to try to build a case against the SAC portfolio manager, Michael Steinberg, and others that could result in charges in the coming months, these people said. Authorities currently are preparing to present evidence to a grand jury against Mr. Steinberg, according to a person familiar with the investigation. The development ramps up the legal pressure on the big hedge fund, highlighting that the previously reported insider-trading investigation of SAC and its founder, Steven A. Cohen, is proceeding on multiple fronts. Blackstone Keeps Most Of Its Money With SAC (NYT) The Blackstone Group, the largest outside investor in the hedge fund SAC Capital Advisors, said it would keep most of its $550 million with the hedge fund for three more months while it monitors developments in the government's insider trading investigation. Performance Tops Pedigree in Money Managers’ Fortunes (Bloomberg) Virtus Investment Partners Inc. and Artio Global Investors Inc. set out on their own in 2009 within nine months of one another. The paths of the two money managers couldn’t have been more different. Virtus, which started as a virtually unknown money manager, has surged 18-fold since its public debut as assets have soared, with its shares hitting a record on Feb. 14. Artio, which listed in September 2009 after spinning out from Switzerland’s 122- year-old wealth manager Julius Baer Group Ltd., saw its life as an independent firm come to an abrupt end with its Feb. 14 acquisition by Aberdeen Asset Management Plc after assets slumped and shares plunged about 90 percent. Banks Warned Not To Leave Libor (WSJ) The Financial Services Authority recently sent letters to a handful of major banks—including France's BNP Paribas SA and the Netherlands' Rabobank Group—warning them not to pull out of the panel that sets the London interbank offered rate, or Libor, these people said. The letters came after executives at those banks privately informed the British Bankers' Association, the trade organization that oversees Libor, that they planned to exit the rate-setting panel. Australian couple get married in IKEA (DM) Lynne said: 'We wanted to get married in IKEA for a very simple reason - we adore IKEA. 'It felt right to be able to show our commitment to one another by getting married somewhere we both love and to show the world that romance can be alive anywhere, even in the aisles of IKEA. Our visits to IKEA over the years have actually brought the two of us closer!' Every element of the special day featured IKEA products handpicked by the happy couple, including crockery, lighting, dining furniture, decorations, glassware and meatballs.