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The Jobs Numbers Take the ‘Stag’ Out of the Stagflation Scare [NYT]
Stagnant economies don’t add 531,000 jobs in a month, and they don’t exhibit a low and rapidly falling unemployment rate — 4.6 percent in October, down from 4.8 percent in September and 6.3 percent at the start of the year…. Indeed, there are lots of signs that this is a hyper-speed recovery compared to the last one. The share of the 25- to 54-year-old workers who are employed jumped 0.3 percentage points in October.
In the last year that share has risen from 76 percent to 78.3 percent. That same shift took about four and a half years in the last expansion, from September 2012 to February 2017.

Biden Meets With Powell, Brainard at White House as He Weighs Fed Pick [Bloomberg]
Brainard is regarded as Biden’s likeliest choice if he decides to replace Powell, an appointee of former President Donald Trump whose term expires early next year…. Biden said at a news conference on Tuesday that he’d make his choice “fairly quickly” but gave no indication how he’s leaning.

Vaccine Makers Shed $28 Billion in Value After Moderna Miss [Bloomberg]
The disappointing results from Moderna contrast with strong sales for Pfizer and partner BioNTech’s shot, which is projected to deliver $29 billion in revenue next year. Today’s blow to the sector also comes a month after the group spiraled lower when a trial of Merck & Co.’s experimental pill showed it cut the risk of hospitalization and death in half…. Investors are grappling with uncertainty over whether billions of dollars in sales will materialize as global economies reopen and other therapies are developed.

Blockchain.com Hires Deutsche Bank Executive as First Compliance Chief [WSJ]
CJ Rinaldi, who most recently was the head of markets compliance in the Americas for broker-dealer Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., began working for London-based Blockchain.com as its global CCO in October. Based in Connecticut, Mr. Rinaldi joins the company’s growing compliance team of 60 people…. The company is looking to double its compliance head count in the near future.

Electric-Van Maker Workhorse Is Being Investigated by the Justice Department, Documents Show [WSJ]
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is also investigating Workhorse, the Journal reported in September. The company has since said it notified the SEC of misstatements it had made to safety regulators…. Workhorse is the third electric-vehicle company known to have come under scrutiny from both federal prosecutors and securities regulators in the past 14 months.

Uber lost $2.4 billion, thanks largely to its Didi investment. [NYT]
The Didi investment weighed heavily on what was otherwise a fairly upbeat quarter for Uber, as both customers and drivers increasingly returned to the road. The loss was 123 percent more than the same quarter a year ago, when Uber’s business was reeling from the pandemic…. On Tuesday, Lyft, Uber’s biggest competitor in the United States, also said its drivers were returning. Lyft reported revenue of $864.4 million, a 73 percent increase from the same period last year, and a loss of $71.5 million, an 84 percent decrease.

Democrats put 401(k) and IRA restrictions for the rich back into their Build Back Better plan [CNBC]
Wealthy individuals with more than $10 million in retirement savings would have to draw down their accounts each year, in a new type of required minimum distribution, or RMD, according to updated legislation issued Wednesday evening by the House Budget Committee.
Lawmakers would also close “backdoor Roth” tax loopholes for the rich, and prohibit further individual retirement account contributions once those accounts exceed $10 million.

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Opening Bell: 10.20.20

Doublings, deadlines, dot-coms, disbelief, distaste and more!

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Opening Bell: 6.27.17

More on the Biden-Ackman affair: “If I could, I’d punch you in the face”; Europe demands Google pony up $2.4 billion; Uber for poop; and more.

(Trump image courtesy Flickr user Gage Skidmore)

Opening Bell: 4.26.17

Trump tax plan is (kind of) here; David Einhorn might need to revisit his dot-com bubble analogy; "White Collar Crime Zones"; and more.

By World Economic Forum (Flickr: The Global Financial Context: James Dimon) [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Opening Bell: 10.13.21

JPMorgan jumps; Biden bears down on bitcoin; fintech’s colorblind—bankers, not so much; Jack Ma’s not-so-triumphant return to Hong Kong; and more!

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Opening Bell: 11.16.21

Things are really not going Joe Biden’s way; CalPERS feeling frisky; buying a real heirloom with fake money; and more!

Opening Bell: 01.07.13

Regulators Give Ground To Banks (WSJ) Global banking regulators watered down a key element of their plan for creating a safer financial system, giving ground to banks that argued the rules were unworkable and financially risky. The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, a group of the world's top regulators and central bankers, said Sunday that it agreed to relax a rule designed to ensure that big banks are able to weather financial crises without running short of cash. Bowing to two years of intense pressure from the banking industry, the regulators made it easier for banks to meet the rule, known as the "liquidity coverage ratio," and delayed its full implementation until 2019. It is the latest instance of regulators chipping away at their landmark 2010 response to the global financial crisis. The regulators argue that the changes make banking rules much stronger than they were before the crisis. Herbalifers Stay Resolute (WSJ) When hedge-fund manager William Ackman unveiled his 334-slide presentation alleging that Herbalife is a pyramid scheme, it did nothing to shake Joanne Clare. The 38-year-old Staten Island mother of three has been selling the company's weight-loss products and supplements since 2004, when she says they helped her drop from 210 to 160 pounds in four months. She now sells as much as $3,500 a month of Herbalife products to her 30 clients and the two distributors in her "down line." "People have always said it's a pyramid scheme, but it's not," Ms. Clare said, adding that the bulk of her earnings come from sales to clients, not her cut of her recruits' take. Mr. Ackman's declaration that he had bet more than $1 billion against Herbalife caused many investors to flee, sending the stock down 38% in four days in late December. But some of the company's 3.1-million-strong army of distributors were unmoved. Eliot Spitzer Ends His Show On Current TV (NYT) The announcement comes a few days after Al Jazeera said it was acquiring Current TV. Later this year, the Qatar-owned broadcaster plans to turn the channel into an Americanized version of the international news channel Al Jazeera English. Mr. Spitzer said he had a “wonderful time” at Current, but emphasized that his relationship was with Al Gore and Joel Hyatt, Current’s co-founders, not with Al Jazeera. “Moving forward, their mission will be different,” he said — more international newscasts, less liberal talk about the news. Citi's Corbat builds bridges (Reuters) Citigroup Inc's Michael Corbat has been meeting with bank regulators in his first months as CEO, as he looks to bolster relationships and finalize the bank's plan to return capital to shareholders, sources familiar with the matter said. Corbat also expects to name his team of top managers within the next week or so, one of the sources said on Sunday. Corbat is expected to play it safe when Citigroup asks the U.S. Federal Reserve for permission for moves such as buying back shares or increasing dividends, analysts and investors said. His predecessor, Vikram Pandit, lost his job in October in part because the bank's request for returning capital was denied in March. The bank, which is due to submit its plan to the Fed on Monday, has not yet done so, the source said. The third-largest U.S. bank will only seek approval to buy back shares and not raise dividends, the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday. Last year, the bank wanted permission to return more than $8 billion to shareholders over two years, the paper said. For Newly Minted MBAs, A Small Paycheck (WSJ) For graduates with minimal experience—three years or less—median pay was $53,900 in 2012, down 4.6% from 2007-08, according to an analysis conducted for The Wall Street Journal by PayScale.com. Pay fell at 62% of the 186 schools examined. Even for more seasoned grads the trend is similar, says Katie Bardaro, lead economist for PayScale.com. "In general, it seems that M.B.A. pay is either stagnant or falling," she says...It is all a far cry from the late 1980s and early 1990s heyday for M.B.A.s, when some companies would hire 100 or more M.B.A.s. It wasn't uncommon to recruit first, and fill actual jobs later. DOJ pledges to respect Swiss law in tax probe (Reuters) Swiss chief finance diplomat Michael Ambuehl was given a verbal pledge from the U.S. Department of Justice to respect Swiss law when asking for bank client data of potential tax dodgers, a newspaper reported on Sunday. Switzerland is in negotiations with U.S. authorities to find a deal that would end tax probes into at least ten Swiss banks suspected of helping clients dodge taxes, including Credit Suisse and Julius Baer. The Alpine country is trying to preserve what is left of its cherished banking secrecy that suffered a severe blow in 2009 when UBS, the first Swiss bank that came under scrutiny in the U.S., was required to disclose client data. Brazilian prison gaurds catch cat that slipped through the gate with escape tools taped to its body (NYDN) Guards at a Brazilian prison nabbed a white cat that slipped through the gate with a cell phone, drills, small saws and other contraband taped to its body. Alagoas prison spokeswoman Cinthya Moreno says the cat was caught New Year’s Eve at the medium-security prison in the city of Arapiraca. The O Estado de S. Paulo newspaper reported Saturday that all of the prison’s 263 inmates are suspects in the smuggling attempt, though a spokesperson said, “It will be hard to discover who is responsible since the cat does not speak.” Loeb, Cooperman Stand Out in Horrid Year for Hedge Funds (CNBC) Third Point was the clear hedge fund standout in a horrible year for the industry as almost nine out of 10 managers underperformed the S&P 500. Omega Advisors' Leon Cooperman also scored big. Loeb — once better known for his acerbic letters to CEOs — used an activist position in Yahoo and the contrarian buying of Greek bonds to drive the firm's flagship fund to a 21 percent gain in 2012. The firm's more-leveraged Ultra fund posted an even bigger 34 percent return...Cooperman's fund had a net return of 26 percent in 2012. Banks Zero In On Foreclosure Pact (WSJ) Banks were closing in on a $10 billion foreclosure-abuse settlement with regulators that could be announced as soon as Monday, according to people familiar with the talks. The settlement was nearly complete Sunday afternoon, the people said, after the Federal Reserve backed down on a demand for more compensation for consumers and other changes to the pact. Bankers threatened to walk away from the deal if the Fed's demand for an additional $300 million was included, a person briefed on the talks said. Junk Bonds' Fire Is Poised to Fade (WSJ) Junk bonds started 2013 much like they finished 2012—on fire. In just three trading days this year, bonds of low-rated companies delivered returns of almost three-quarters of a percent, even as most other types of bonds lost value. And junk bonds continued to clock new milestones: Average prices soared to their highest since 2004 and average yields, which decline as prices rise, dropped below 6% for the first time ever, according to Barclays. But the rapid march is making fund managers and analysts wary. Prices are now so high—averaging more than 105 cents on the dollar—that there is little room for them to climb much further, some investors say. These are lofty prices for bonds that usually trade below 100 cents, reflecting the higher default risk for such companies. At the very least, returns will pale in comparison with the 15% achieved in 2012, analysts and investors say. NHL, Players Settle Labor Dispute (AP) On the 113th day of a management lockout and five days before the league's deadline for a deal, the bleary-eyed sides held a 6 a.m. news conference to announce there will be a season, after all. NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman and union head Donald Fehr both appeared drained, wearing sweaters and not neckties, when they stood side by side at the hotel and announced labor peace. "We have reached an agreement on the framework of a new collective bargaining agreement, the details of which need to be put to paper," Bettman said. "We've got to dot a lot of Is, cross a lot of Ts. There's still a lot of work to be done, but the basic framework of the deal has been agreed upon." Hostess in Talks to Sell Off Bread Brands (WSJ) Hostess could disclose Flowers, Grupo Bimbo or others as opening bidders in a looming bankruptcy-court auction for the assets as soon as this week, said people familiar with the matter. Hostess, whose bread brands include Wonder Bread, Nature's Pride, Home Pride, Merita and Butternut, is still determining how to split up assets and package them for buyers, one of the people said. Gérard Depardieu gives up French citizenship after bitter tax fight (GM) In a fit of pique, French movie star Gérard Depardieu announced during the weekend that he would give up his citizenship after politicians and the media took him to task for moving to Belgium and avoiding an impending tax hike for the rich. Mr. Depardieu is not France’s first fiscal refugee but his high-profile door-slamming so monopolized public debate that Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault had on Monday to parse whether or not he had insulted the actor. “I did not call Mr. Depardieu a loser, I said that it was loser-like [to move to Belgium to avoid taxes],” Mr. Ayrault told reporters...The “loser” comment seemed to have been the jab that stung Mr. Depardieu the most. “Loser, did you say loser?” the 63-year–old actor began an open letter to Mr. Ayrault that appeared Sunday in Le Journal du dimanche. Mr. Depardieu wrote that he had paid a total of €145-million in income tax in the last four decades and kept 80 people employed. He added that he had been taxed at a marginal rate of 85 per cent this year. “I am giving you back my passport and my social insurance, which I had never used. We no longer have the same fatherland. I am a true European, a citizen of the world.”

Opening Bell: 10.09.12

Stress For Banks As Tests, Loom (WSJ) U.S. banks and the Federal Reserve are battling over a new round of "stress tests" even before the annual exams get going later this fall. The clash centers on the math regulators are using to produce the results. Bankers want more detail on how the calculations are made, and the Fed thus far has resisted disclosing more than it has already. A senior Fed supervision official, Timothy Clark, irked some bankers last month when he said at a private conference they wouldn't get additional information about the methodology, according to people who attended the event in Boston. Wells Fargo Treasurer Paul Ackerman said at the same conference that he still doesn't understand why the Fed's estimates are so different from Wells's. His remarks drew applause from bankers in the audience, said the people who attended. Bonus Round Is Over (NYP) Wall Street traders, among the best paid in financial circles, are facing another meager bonus season this year — at least by Street standards — after a rough 2011 saw bonuses slashed by as much as 30 percent. Although some groups will fare better than others, equity traders could see their prized bonuses shredded again in 2012 — by as much as 35 percent, according to recruiters and others. In addition to lower bonuses, Wall Streeters are likely to see less of the payout in cash and more in stock — with the stock facing longer deferral periods, one recruiter, Michael Karp, co-founder of Options Group, said. Deutsche Bank has already moved from three-year deferral periods to stricter five-year deferrals and it’s expected that other banks will follow suit. IMF Sees ‘Alarmingly High’ Risk of Deeper Global Slump (Bloomberg) The world economy will grow 3.3 percent this year, the slowest since the 2009 recession, and 3.6 percent next year, the IMF said today, compared with July predictions of 3.5 percent in 2012 and 3.9 percent in 2013. The Washington-based lender now sees “alarmingly high” risks of a steeper slowdown, with a one-in-six chance of growth slipping below 2 percent. Depositors Turn Up Heat On Ailing Spanish Banks (WSJ) Eugenio Nuñez Cobás stormed into a bank branch in this coastal town one morning in August with three dozen fellow customers yelling "Thieves! Thieves! Thieves!" Then they returned to the street and pelted the facade with eggs, forcing the branch to close for the day. Athens Preparing for Anti-Austerity Protests Aimed at Merkel (Bloomberg) Greece’s capital will grind to a halt today for German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s first visit since the financial crisis began, with 7,000 officers deployed around Athens to prevent violence at planned protests. Authorities have declared entire sections of downtown off- limits, notably Prime Minister Antonis Samaras’s office, where the two leaders, will meet and the German embassy. Merkel is due to arrive at 1:30 p.m., around the same time as three separate protest marches gather in front of Parliament. Can Marissa Mayer Really Have It All? (NYM) When faced with a difficult decision, Mayer likes to create a spreadsheet. She went to Stanford as an undergrad, switching from pre-med to an esoteric major called “symbolic systems,” which is a mixture of philosophy, brain science, and artificial intelligence (anybody anywhere can do pre-med, she thought), and then continued on, getting an advanced degree in computer science. She entered the job market in the spring of 1999, at the height of the dot-com boom, and got more than a dozen offers—from several dot-coms, including Google (she interviewed with Page and Sergey Brin at a Ping-Pong table), and one from McKinsey & Co. “I like to do matrices,” she told NPR. “One option per line, different facets for each column. Salary, location, happiness index, failure index, and all that.” That spring, her matrix pointed her toward Google. “To my credit, I actually gave Google a hundred times more likely chance of succeeding than any of the other start-ups [from which she got offers], because I gave them a 2 percent chance of success. I gave all the other start-ups a .02 percent chance of success.” A Beacon For DC, By Ben Bernanke (WSJ) People decry the absence of leadership in Washington these days. My response: Look no further than the home-team dugout at Nationals Park. Under Manager Davey Johnson's confident, laid-back leadership, the Washington Nationals, defying all preseason conventional wisdom, have claimed the 2012 championship of the National League Eastern Division and the best regular-season record in Major League Baseball...Davey, who earned a degree in mathematics from Trinity University, is the epitome of the head-and-heart consensus. He was an early proponent of the use of statistical analysis in baseball decision-making, and it is clear in his tactical management of games that he is very conversant with sabermetric principles. He well understands, for instance, how to use statistics in determining lineups and pitcher-hitter matchups. At the same time, Davey is also really good at identifying and nurturing talent. Most strikingly, he has shown himself willing to sacrifice short-term tactical advantage for the long-term benefit of bolstering the confidence of a player in whom he sees great potential. He lets players play through slumps and gives pitchers who have gotten behind a chance to dig themselves out. His reasoning: Giving a promising player the opportunity the prove himself will often do more for the team in the long run than making an ostensibly better tactical decision in the short run—even if it costs the team a game or two. McKinsey casts gloomy eye on world banking (Reuters) Banks worldwide remain scarred by the 2007-2009 financial crisis and are years away from developing new business models that will produce sustainable profits, according to a new study. Despite progress in meeting regulators' requirements to build capital, revenue growth is slow, costs are rising and new competitors exploiting digital technologies are emerging, McKinsey & Co said in a report released on Monday evening. Obama's Next Fed Chief: Who Gets The Job If Obama Wins Second Term? (WaPo) The top contenders are: Ben Bernanke, Larry Summers, Janet Yellen, Roger Ferguson, Bill Dudley, Tim Geithner, and Don Kohn. Man Dies After Live Roach-Eating Contest In Florida (AP) The winner of a roach-eating contest in South Florida died shortly after downing dozens of the live bugs as well as worms, authorities said Monday. About 30 contestants ate the insects during Friday night's contest at Ben Siegel Reptile Store in Deerfield Beach about 40 miles north of Miami. The grand prize was a python. Edward Archbold, 32, of West Palm Beach became ill shortly after the contest ended and collapsed in front of the store, according to a Broward Sheriff's Office statement released Monday. He was taken to the hospital where he was pronounced dead. Authorities were waiting for results of an autopsy to determine a cause of death...None of the other contestants became ill, the sheriff's office said. There was no updated phone number listed for Archbold in West Palm Beach. "We feel terribly awful," said store owner Ben Siegel, who added that Archbold did not appear to be sick before the contest. "He looked like he just wanted to show off and was very nice," Siegel said, adding that Archbold was "the life of the party."

vaccine shot

Opening Bell: 7.26.21

Mulling mandates; Barclays’ bounce; a deal on the deal; cybersecurity surge; and more!